Risk Assessment in PPP Projects by Applying Different MCDM Methods and Comparative Results Analysis

Recently, risk assessment has become one of the most challenging issues in the areas of construction and public-private partnerships (PPPs). To address risk assessment issues, various decision-making techniques have been proposed, each with its own specific disadvantages and advantages. This paper investigates step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA), complex proportional assessment (COPRAS), fuzzy analytic network process (FANP), fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), fuzzy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS), simple additive weighting (SAW) and evaluation based on distance from average solution (EDAS) in order to define how various multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) methods compare when used for risk assessment in PPP projects. For this study, 5 risk assessment criteria and 10 types of risk used in Iranian highway PPP projects were selected. Four suitability and applicability tests were used to measure agreement between the rankings derived from the MADM methods. Final results show that all techniques had approximately the same rankings of risk assessment, with the SWARA, COPRAS, and EDAS methods performing slightly better. The findings of this study will help the parties in PPP and construction projects to select the best risk assessment method.

[1]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  Multi-Criteria Inventory Classification Using a New Method of Evaluation Based on Distance from Average Solution (EDAS) , 2015, Informatica.

[2]  Gururaj Hunsigi,et al.  Irrigation and drainage , 2009 .

[3]  Norhazilan Md Noor,et al.  Hybrid SWARA-COPRAS method for risk assessment in deep foundation excavation project: an Iranian case study , 2017 .

[4]  K. Andolsek,et al.  Risk assessment , 2003, Nature.

[5]  Metin Dagdeviren,et al.  Using the analytic network process (ANP) in a SWOT analysis - A case study for a textile firm , 2007, Inf. Sci..

[6]  S. M. Hatefi,et al.  Construction Projects Assessment Based on the Sustainable Development Criteria by an Integrated Fuzzy AHP and Improved GRA Model , 2018 .

[7]  Morteza Yazdani,et al.  Risk Analysis of Critical Infrastructures Using Fuzzy Copras , 2011 .

[8]  S. Meysam Mousavi,et al.  Risk identification and assessment for build-operate-transfer projects: A fuzzy multi attribute decision making model , 2010, Expert Syst. Appl..

[9]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  Risk assessment of construction projects , 2010 .

[10]  Russell L. Ackoff,et al.  An Approximate Measure of Value , 1954, Oper. Res..

[11]  Suzanne Wilkinson,et al.  Risk impact assessments in project budget development: architects’ perspectives , 2016 .

[12]  Abbas Mardani,et al.  A fuzzy analytic network process method for risk prioritization in freeway PPP projects: an Iranian case study , 2015 .

[13]  S. Hewitt,et al.  1980 , 1980, Literatur in der SBZ/DDR.

[14]  Andrew J. Higgins,et al.  A comparison of multiple criteria analysis techniques for water resource management , 2008, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[15]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  State of art surveys of overviews on MCDM/MADM methods , 2014 .

[16]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  Multicriteria Evaluation of Building Foundation Alternatives , 2016, Comput. Aided Civ. Infrastructure Eng..

[17]  N. Malys,et al.  Comparative analysis of MCDM methods for the assessment of sustainable housing affordability , 2016 .

[18]  Ayşegül Tuş Işık,et al.  Integration of MACBETH and COPRAS methods to select air compressor for a textile company , 2016 .

[19]  K. Srinivasa Raju,et al.  FUZZY DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS FOR PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF AN IRRIGATION SYSTEM , 2013 .

[20]  Audrius Banaitis,et al.  Risk Management in Construction Projects , 2012 .

[21]  Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib,et al.  Comparison of Different Multi Criteria Decision-Making Models in Prioritizing Flood Management Alternatives , 2015, Water Resources Management.

[22]  Richard Edgar Hodgett,et al.  Comparison of multi-criteria decision-making methods for equipment selection , 2015, The International Journal of Advanced Manufacturing Technology.

[23]  Rosli Mohamad Zin,et al.  An enhanced multi-objective optimization approach for risk allocation in public–private partnership projects: a case study of Malaysia , 2014 .

[24]  A. Akintoye,et al.  Achieving best value in private finance initiative project procurement , 2003 .

[25]  Zenonas Turskis,et al.  A novel hybrid multi-criteria decision-making model to assess a stairs shape for dwelling houses , 2016 .

[26]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  Extended EDAS Method for Fuzzy Multi-criteria Decision-making: An Application to Supplier Selection , 2016, Int. J. Comput. Commun. Control.

[27]  Dan Wang,et al.  Modelling risk allocation decision in construction contracts , 2007 .

[28]  Peng Chen,et al.  Research on the Risk of Deep Foundation Excavation Engineering Management Based on RBS and AHP , 2013 .

[29]  Alexander Moffett,et al.  Incorporating multiple criteria into the design of conservation area networks: a minireview with recommendations , 2006 .

[30]  Ze Ye,et al.  Research on Risk Evaluation in Urban Rail Transit Project , 2011 .

[31]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  A Hybrid MCDM Technique for Risk Management in Construction Projects , 2018, Symmetry.

[32]  Leonas Ustinovichius,et al.  Decision model for selection of modernization measures: public building case , 2015 .

[33]  Zenonas Turskis,et al.  Integrated Fuzzy Multiple Criteria Decision Making Model for Architect Selection , 2012 .

[34]  Seyed Hessameddin Zegordi,et al.  Power plant project risk assessment using a fuzzy-ANP and fuzzy-TOPSIS method , 2012 .

[35]  Hadi Sarvari,et al.  Risk Ranking of Malaysian Public Private Partnership Projects , 2014 .

[36]  G. Heravi,et al.  Risk Allocation in Public–Private Partnership Infrastructure Projects in Developing Countries: Case Study of the Tehran–Chalus Toll Road , 2012 .

[37]  Sai Hong Tang,et al.  TOPSIS and fuzzy multi-objective model integration for supplier selection problem , 2008 .

[38]  Mohammad Izadikhah,et al.  Extension of the TOPSIS method for decision-making problems with fuzzy data , 2006, Appl. Math. Comput..

[39]  Shahid Iqbal,et al.  Risk management in construction projects , 2015 .

[40]  Patrick X.W. Zou,et al.  Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process Risk Assessment Approach for Joint Venture Construction Projects in China , 2007 .

[41]  Abbas Mardani,et al.  A new hybrid fuzzy cybernetic analytic network process model to identify shared risks in PPP projects , 2016 .

[42]  D. Chang Applications of the extent analysis method on fuzzy AHP , 1996 .

[43]  Ron Vreeker,et al.  Selecting an Appropriate Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Technique for Renewable Energy Planning , 2006 .

[44]  Robert J. Hill,et al.  Measuring Housing Affordability: Looking Beyond the Median , 2009 .

[45]  Patrick X.W. Zou,et al.  Fuzzy AHP-Based Risk Assessment Methodology for PPP Projects , 2011 .

[46]  Bon-Gang Hwang,et al.  Sustainable risk management in the construction industry: lessons learned from the IT industry , 2015 .

[47]  Albert P.C. Chan,et al.  Developing a Fuzzy Risk Allocation Model for PPP Projects in China , 2010 .

[48]  Salah R. Agha,et al.  A Multi-criteria Multi-stakeholder Industrial Projects Prioritization in Gaza Strip , 2013 .

[49]  Stelios H. Zanakis,et al.  Multi-attribute decision making: A simulation comparison of select methods , 1998, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[50]  Adel Guitouni Decision-aid to improve organisational performance , 2005, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[51]  Albert P.C. Chan,et al.  A computerized model for measuring and benchmarking the partnering performance of construction projects , 2009 .

[52]  Andrew D.F. Price,et al.  Modelling global risk factors affecting construction cost performance , 2003 .

[53]  I. Linkov,et al.  Multicriteria Decision Analysis: A Comprehensive Decision Approach for Management of Contaminated Sediments , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[54]  Bon-Gang Hwang,et al.  Project network management: risks and contributors from the viewpoint of contractors and sub-contractors , 2015 .

[55]  Jung-Ho Yu,et al.  A conflict-risk assessment model for urban regeneration projects using Fuzzy-FMEA , 2012 .

[56]  M. Loosemore,et al.  Risk allocation in the private provision of public infrastructure , 2007 .

[57]  Robert LIN,et al.  NOTE ON FUZZY SETS , 2014 .

[58]  Dragisa Stanujkic,et al.  Selection of candidates in the mining industry based on the application of the SWARA and the MULTIMOORA methods , 2015 .