Present and future emissions of air pollutants in China:: SO2, NOx, and CO

Abstract As part of the CHINA-MAP program, sponsored by the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, regional inventories of air pollutants emitted in China are being characterized, in order that the atmospheric chemistry over China can be more fully understood and the resulting ambient concentrations in Chinese cities and the deposition levels to Chinese ecosystems be determined with better confidence. This paper presents estimates of emissions of three of the major air pollutants in China: sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and carbon monoxide (CO). Emissions are estimated for each of the 29 regions of China covered by the RAINS-ASIA simulation model, including Hong Kong and Taiwan. All sectors of the Chinese economy are considered, including the combustion of biofuels in rural homes. Data for 1990 and 1995 are presented, as well as two projections for the year 2020 under alternative assumptions about levels of environmental control. Sulfur dioxide emissions are projected to increase from 25.2 mt in 1995 to 30.6 mt in 2020, provided emission controls are implemented on major power plants; if this does not happen, emissions could increase to as much as 60.7 mt by 2020. Emissions of nitrogen oxides are projected to increase from 12.0 mt in 1995 to somewhere in the range of 26.6–29.7 mt by 2020, with little in the way of pollution controls or other emission reduction measures in place. Emissions of carbon monoxide are projected to decline from 115 mt in 1995 to 96.8 mt in 2020, due to more efficient combustion techniques, especially in the transportation sector; if these measures are not realized, carbon monoxide emissions could increase to 130 mt by 2020. Emissions of all three species are concentrated in the populated and industrialized areas of China: the Northeastern Plain, the East Central and Southeastern provinces, and the Sichuan Basin.