Complex network approach for detecting tropical cyclones

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural hazards that pose a serious threat to society around the globe, particularly to those in the coastal regions. In this work, we study the temporal evolution of the regional weather conditions in relation to the occurrence of TCs using climate networks. Climate networks encode the interactions among climate variables at different locations on the Earth's surface, and in particular, time-evolving climate networks have been successfully applied to study different climate phenomena at comparably long time scales, such as the El Ni~no Southern Oscillation, different monsoon systems, or the climatic impacts of volcanic eruptions. Here, we develop and apply a complex network approach suitable for the investigation of the relatively short-lived TCs. We show that our proposed methodology has the potential to identify TCs and their tracks from mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data. We use the ERA5 reanalysis MSLP data to construct successive networks 20 of overlapping, short-length time windows for the regions under consideration, where we focus on the north Indian Ocean and the tropical north Atlantic Ocean. We compare the spatial features of various topological properties of the network, and the spatial scales involved, in the absence and presence of a cyclone. We find that network measures such as degree and clustering exhibit significant signatures of TCs and have striking similarities with their tracks. The study of network topology over time scales relevant to TCs allows us to obtain useful insights into the individual local signature of changes in the flow structure of the regional climate system.

[1]  Réka Albert,et al.  Structural vulnerability of the North American power grid. , 2004, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[2]  Duncan J. Watts,et al.  Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks , 1998, Nature.

[3]  J. Neal,et al.  Emergency flood bulletins for Cyclones Idai and Kenneth: A critical evaluation of the use of global flood forecasts for international humanitarian preparedness and response , 2020, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction.

[4]  Klaus Lehnertz,et al.  Evolving networks in the human epileptic brain , 2013, 1309.4039.

[5]  C. Landsea,et al.  Atlantic Hurricane Database Uncertainty and Presentation of a New Database Format , 2013 .

[6]  Yi Wang,et al.  The Local-World Evolving Network Model for Power Grid Considering Different Voltage Levels , 2018, The 11th APSCOM2018.

[7]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Inferring interdependencies from short time series , 2017 .

[8]  W. M. Gray,et al.  GLOBAL VIEW OF THE ORIGIN OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCES AND STORMS , 1968 .

[9]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Download details: IP Address: 193.174.18.1 , 2011 .

[10]  F. Tangang,et al.  Bimodal Character of Cyclone Climatology in the Bay of Bengal Modulated by Monsoon Seasonal Cycle , 2013 .

[11]  Albert,et al.  Topology of evolving networks: local events and universality , 2000, Physical review letters.

[12]  N Marwan,et al.  Complex networks for tracking extreme rainfall during typhoons. , 2018, Chaos.

[13]  Norbert Marwan,et al.  A network-based comparative study of extreme tropical and frontal storm rainfall over Japan , 2019, Climate Dynamics.

[14]  Shilpa Chakravartula,et al.  Complex Networks: Structure and Dynamics , 2014 .

[15]  J. Kurths,et al.  The size distribution of spatiotemporal extreme rainfall clusters around the globe , 2016 .

[16]  S. Havlin,et al.  Climate networks around the globe are significantly affected by El Niño. , 2008, Physical review letters.

[17]  K. Keay,et al.  Assessing characteristics of Mediterranean explosive cyclones for different data resolution , 2011 .

[18]  M. Kendall The treatment of ties in ranking problems. , 1945, Biometrika.

[19]  Shlomo Havlin,et al.  Improved El Niño forecasting by cooperativity detection , 2013, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[20]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Weighted evolving networks: coupling topology and weight dynamics. , 2004, Physical review letters.

[21]  M. Kendall A NEW MEASURE OF RANK CORRELATION , 1938 .

[22]  Albert-László Barabási,et al.  Statistical mechanics of complex networks , 2001, ArXiv.

[23]  Changsong Zhou,et al.  Hierarchical organization unveiled by functional connectivity in complex brain networks. , 2006, Physical review letters.

[24]  Kerry A. Emanuel,et al.  Use of a Genesis Potential Index to Diagnose ENSO Effects on Tropical Cyclone Genesis , 2007 .

[25]  S. Strogatz Exploring complex networks , 2001, Nature.

[26]  L. Barnett,et al.  Spatially embedded random networks. , 2007, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[27]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Analysis of spatial and temporal extreme monsoonal rainfall over South Asia using complex networks , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[28]  Shlomo Havlin,et al.  Very early warning of next El Niño , 2014, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[29]  A. Tsonis,et al.  Topology and predictability of El Niño and La Niña networks. , 2008, Physical review letters.

[30]  Potsdam,et al.  Complex networks in climate dynamics. Comparing linear and nonlinear network construction methods , 2009, 0907.4359.

[31]  Synchronization of extreme rainfall during the Australian summer monsoon: Complex network perspectives. , 2020, Chaos.

[32]  Paul J. Roebber,et al.  What Do Networks Have to Do with Climate , 2006 .

[33]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Complex networks identify spatial patterns of extreme rainfall events of the South American Monsoon System , 2013 .

[34]  Mark Newman,et al.  Networks: An Introduction , 2010 .

[35]  N. Holbrook,et al.  A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall , 2017, Climate Dynamics.

[36]  Norbert Marwan,et al.  The backbone of the climate network , 2009, 1002.2100.

[37]  Norbert Marwan,et al.  Regional and inter-regional effects in evolving climate networks , 2014 .

[38]  Shlomo Havlin,et al.  Percolation framework to describe El Niño conditions. , 2016, Chaos.

[39]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Topology and seasonal evolution of the network of extreme precipitation over the Indian subcontinent and Sri Lanka , 2014 .

[40]  Jürgen Kurths,et al.  Complex networks reveal global pattern of extreme-rainfall teleconnections , 2019, Nature.

[41]  Thilo Gross,et al.  Adaptive coevolutionary networks: a review , 2007, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[42]  Jurgen Kurths,et al.  Synchronization in complex networks , 2008, 0805.2976.

[43]  J. Kurths,et al.  Temporal evolution of the spatial covariability of rainfall in South America , 2018, Climate Dynamics.

[44]  Norbert Marwan,et al.  The South American rainfall dipole: A complex network analysis of extreme events , 2014 .

[45]  Paul J. Roebber,et al.  The architecture of the climate network , 2004 .

[46]  A. Satyanarayana,et al.  Intensity of tropical cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons in relation to accumulated tropical cyclone heat potential over Bay of Bengal , 2013, Natural Hazards.