A Sources-of-Error Model for Acoustic/Infrasonic Yield Estimation for Above-Ground Single-Point Explosions

Acoustic/infrasonic measurements contain physical information enabling an estimate of the yield of a single-point explosion that is on or above ground. A variety of semi-empirical and numerical models have been developed for estimating the yield based on the amplitude of a recorded acoustic signal. This paper utilizes existing semi-empirical models-suitable for timely yield estimation—and develops the mathematical framework to properly account for uncertainties in these models, in addition to measurement uncertainties. The inclusion of calibration parameters into our mathematical model allows for the correction of constant path specific effects that are not captured in existing semi-empirical models. The calibrated model provides a yield estimate and associated error bounds that correctly partitions total error into model error and background noise. Yield estimation with the models is demonstrated with single-point, above ground chemical explosions at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) experimental testing facilities.