Reliability Evaluation Model of the Water Supply Reservoir System with Discharges from Residual Basins Incorporated

As society advances, a drought causes more serious damages. Therefore, given a current river-basin system, it is extremely important for water resources managers to examine properly its reliability performances against droughts by taking due account of the role of operation. In order to analyze the reliability performances, it is required to construct analitical models which can calculate reliability performances by use of proper indices and which can incorporated the operation scheme in use. A model is proposed to estimate essential spectra of the reliability performances of the assessed river-basin system. The operation scheme commonly used in practice is such that the reservoir in the mainstream is operated by taking account of discharges from the residual basins. Therefore this type of operation scheme is explicitly built in the model. After the above discussions, some numerical examples are provided and the potential of the proposed model is assessed.