Long-term variability of solar direct and global radiation derived from ISCCP data and comparison with reanalysis data

Abstract Annual variations of solar radiation at the Earth’s surface may be strong and could seriously harm the return of investment for solar energy projects. This paper analyzes the long-term variability of broadband surface solar radiation based on 18 years of three-hourly satellite observations from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). Direct normal irradiance (DNI) and global horizontal irradiance (GHI) at the surface are derived through radiative transfer calculations, using different physical input parameters describing the actual composition of the atmosphere. Validation of DNI is performed with two years of high resolution Meteosat-derived irradiance. Monthly averages show an average mean bias deviation of −1.7%. Results for DNI from the 18-year time series indicate strong and significant increases for several regions in the subtropics up to +4 W/m 2 per year, with exception of Australia, where a small decrease in DNI of –1 W/m 2 per year is observed. Inter-annual variability for DNI is very strong and sometimes exceeds 20%. Comparisons of calculations with and without volcanic aerosol reveal a decrease of up to 16% in annual averages due to volcano eruptions. Changes in GHI are much smaller and less significant. Results show a maximum increase of 0.8 W/m 2 per year and an annual variability of less than 4%. Volcano eruptions reduce annual averages of GHI by less than 2.2%. The two reanalysis data sets investigated differ strongly from each other and are far off the validated results derived from satellite data. Trends are weaker and less significant or even of opposite sign.

[1]  A. J. Miller,et al.  Evaluation of the Earth Radiation Budget in NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis with ERBE , 1999 .

[2]  Yongxiang Hu,et al.  An Accurate Parameterization of the Radiative Properties of Water Clouds Suitable for Use in Climate Models , 1993 .

[3]  Christoph Schillings,et al.  Validation of a method for deriving high resolution direct normal irradiance from satellite data and application for the Arabian Peninsula , 2004 .

[4]  M. Ringer,et al.  Simulation of the Earth's radiation budget by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) , 2004 .

[5]  J. Hansen,et al.  Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850–1990 , 1993 .

[6]  J. Key,et al.  Parameterization of shortwave ice cloud optical properties for various particle habits , 2002 .

[7]  C. Long,et al.  From Dimming to Brightening: Decadal Changes in Solar Radiation at Earth's Surface , 2005, Science.

[8]  Ina Tegen,et al.  Multidecadal solar radiation trends in the United States and Germany and direct tropospheric aerosol forcing , 2002 .

[9]  Pierre Ineichen,et al.  Impact of Pinatubo aerosols on the seasonal trends of global, direct and diffuse irradiance in two northern mid-latitude sites , 1996 .

[10]  Bernhard Mayer,et al.  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Technical Note: the Libradtran Software Package for Radiative Transfer Calculations – Description and Examples of Use , 2022 .

[11]  Martin Wild,et al.  Means and Trends of Shortwave Irradiance at the Surface Estimated from Global Energy Balance Archive Data. , 1998 .

[12]  A. Robock.  Volcanic eruptions and climate , 2000 .

[13]  A. Lacis,et al.  Calculation of radiative fluxes from the surface to top of atmosphere based on ISCCP and other global data sets: Refinements of the radiative transfer model and the input data , 2004 .

[14]  F. Trieb,et al.  Solar Energy Mining: A High-Quality Satellite-based Service to Provide Direct Solar Radiation for Europe, Brazil, Africa and Asia , 2004 .

[15]  William H. Press,et al.  Numerical recipes in C , 2002 .

[16]  Mian Chin,et al.  Contribution of different aerosol species to the global aerosol extinction optical thickness: Estimates from model results , 1997 .

[17]  K. Liou,et al.  Parameterization of the scattering and absorption properties of individual ice crystals , 2000 .

[18]  Richard Perez,et al.  Degradation of solar concentrator performance in the aftermath of Mount Pinatubo , 1994 .

[19]  C. Schillings,et al.  Operational method for deriving high resolution direct normal irradiance from satellite data , 2004 .

[20]  W. Rossow,et al.  The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP): The First Project of the World Climate Research Programme , 1983 .

[21]  W. Rossow,et al.  Advances in understanding clouds from ISCCP , 1999 .

[22]  B. Liepert,et al.  Observed reductions of surface solar radiation at sites in the United States and worldwide from 1961 to 1990 , 2002 .

[23]  K. Stamnes,et al.  A reliable and efficient two-stream algorithm for spherical radiative transfer: Documentation of accuracy in realistic layered media , 1995 .

[24]  William B. Rossow,et al.  Update of Radiance Calibrations for ISCCP , 1997 .

[25]  E. Dutton,et al.  Do Satellites Detect Trends in Surface Solar Radiation? , 2004, Science.

[26]  F. X. Kneizys,et al.  AFGL atmospheric constituent profiles (0-120km) , 1986 .

[27]  E. Clothiaux,et al.  The k-distribution method and correlated-k approximation for a shortwave radiative transfer model. , 1999 .