Real-time optimal water allocation for daily hydropower generation from the Vanderkloof dam, South Africa

Display Omitted The adverse effects of power shortages resulting from escalating energy demands, due to rapid global urbanization and industrial developments, have driven efforts worldwide in search for improved techniques for sustainable reservoir operations and optimization for hydropower generation. Recent studies have shown that, combining accurate reservoir inflow forecasting procedures with efficient optimization techniques can produce more efficient and balanced solutions, for operation of multipurpose reservoir systems to improve on the economy of hydropower production. This study presents the coupling of a data driven artificial neural network (ANN) model and a novel combined Pareto multi-objective differential evolution (CPMDE), for hydrological simulation and multi-objective numerical optimization of hydropower production, from the Vanderkloof dam in real-time. Results from the application of the real-time strategy, indicate a significant improvement in performance over the current practice. Therefore, the hybrid ANN-CPMDE real-time reservoir operation model suggested herein provides a low cost solution methodology, suitable for sustainable operation of the Vanderkloof reservoir in South Africa.

[1]  Josiah Adeyemo,et al.  Reservoir Inflow Forecasting Using Differential Evolution Trained Neural Networks , 2014 .

[2]  Oliver Paish,et al.  Small hydro power: technology and current status , 2002 .

[3]  Long le Ngo Optimising reservoir operation: A case study of the Hoa Binh reservoir, Vietnam , 2007 .

[4]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  A Real-Time Inflow Forecasting and Reservoir Optimization System for Optimizing Hydropower Production , 2009 .

[5]  Josiah Adeyemo,et al.  Optimized Fourier Approximation Models for Estimating Monthly Streamflow in the Vanderkloof Dam, South Africa , 2014 .

[6]  R. Storn,et al.  Differential Evolution - A simple and efficient adaptive scheme for global optimization over continuous spaces , 2004 .

[7]  Kalyanmoy Deb,et al.  Multi-objective optimization using evolutionary algorithms , 2001, Wiley-Interscience series in systems and optimization.

[8]  Ji Chen,et al.  Estimating irrigation water demand using an improved method and optimizing reservoir operation for water supply and hydropower generation: A case study of the Xinfengjiang reservoir in southern China , 2013 .

[9]  Seyed Ali Torabi,et al.  A REVIEW OF MATHEMATICAL OPTIMIZATION APPLICATIONS IN OIL-AND-GAS UPSTREAM & MIDSTREAM MANAGEMENT , 2013 .

[10]  Zara Ghodsi,et al.  Forecasting energy data using Singular Spectrum Analysis in the presence of outlier(s) , 2014 .

[11]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  Real-time optimisation of the Hoa Binh reservoir, Vietnam , 2011 .

[12]  Wei Sun,et al.  Multi-objective ecological reservoir operation based on water quality response models and improved genetic algorithm: A case study in Three Gorges Reservoir, China , 2014, Engineering applications of artificial intelligence.

[13]  R. E. Smith,et al.  Preliminary empirical models to predict reductions in total and low flows resulting from afforestation , 1997 .

[14]  A. Soldati,et al.  River flood forecasting with a neural network model , 1999 .

[15]  Emmanuel Sirimal Silva,et al.  Forecasting U.S. Tourist arrivals using optimal Singular Spectrum Analysis , 2015 .

[16]  R. Storn,et al.  Differential Evolution: A Practical Approach to Global Optimization (Natural Computing Series) , 2005 .

[17]  Girma Gebresenbet,et al.  Modeling hydropower plant system to improve its reservoir operation , 2010 .

[18]  Henrik Madsen,et al.  Adaptive state updating in real-time river flow forecasting—a combined filtering and error forecasting procedure , 2005 .

[19]  Aman Mohammad Kalteh Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) , 2007 .

[20]  Menard Mugumo A simple operating model of the Van der Kloof Reservoir using ANN streamflow forecasts , 2012 .

[21]  Christian Borgelt,et al.  Introduction to Neural Networks , 2016 .

[22]  Richard C. Peralta,et al.  Multiobjective genetic algorithm conjunctive use optimization for production, cost, and energy with dynamic return flow , 2014 .

[23]  U. C. Kothyari,et al.  Artificial neural networks for daily rainfall—runoff modelling , 2002 .

[24]  Atila Dorum,et al.  Modelling the rainfall-runoff data of susurluk basin , 2010, Expert Syst. Appl..

[25]  Josiah Adeyemo,et al.  Evaluation of combined Pareto multiobjective differential evolution on tuneable problems , 2014 .

[26]  Josiah Adeyemo,et al.  Impact of Regional Climate Change on Freshwater Resources and Operation of the Vanderkloof Dam System in South Africa , 2012 .

[27]  Hossein Hassani,et al.  MULTIVARIATE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS: A GENERAL VIEW AND NEW VECTOR FORECASTING APPROACH , 2013 .

[28]  Rainer Storn,et al.  Differential Evolution – A Simple and Efficient Heuristic for global Optimization over Continuous Spaces , 1997, J. Glob. Optim..

[29]  Josiah Adeyemo,et al.  A Combined Pareto Differential Evolution Approach for Multi-objective Optimization , 2012, EVOLVE.

[30]  Young-Oh Kim,et al.  Rainfall‐runoff models using artificial neural networks for ensemble streamflow prediction , 2005 .

[31]  Jery R. Stedinger,et al.  Water Resources Systems Planning And Management , 2006 .