Hysteresis and Economics Taking the economic past into account

The goal of this article is to explore the rationale underlying the application of hysteresis to economic models. In particular, we explain why many aspects of real economic systems are hysteretic. The aim is to be explicit about the difficulties encountered when trying to incorporate hysteretic effects into models that can be validated and then used as possible tools for macroeconomic control. The growing appreciation of the ways that memory effects influence the functioning of economic systems is a significant advance in economic thought and, by removing distortions that result from oversimplifying specifications of input–output relations in economics, has the potential to narrow the gap between economic modeling and economic reality. Although economic systems evolve in time, mainstream economics on the whole is not cognizant of the history dependence of economic processes, even though the relevance of the historical dimension in economics has been emphasized time and again by historians and philosophers, for example, in [1], which is also one of the first works in economics to mention hysteresis explicitly (but without providing a rigorous definition). Merely accepting that economic structures evolve is not sufficient to single out any particular mechanism of history dependence at work. In many cases an economic agent can be 1

[1]  James Alfred Ewing,et al.  On the production of transient electric currents in iron and steel conductors by twisting them when magnetised, or by magnetising them when twisted , 1883, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London.

[2]  F. E. Principles of Economics , 1890, Nature.

[3]  I. Fisher Mathematical Investigations in the Theory of Value and Prices , 1893 .

[4]  A. W. Phillips,et al.  Mechanical Models in Economic Dynamics , 1950 .

[5]  L. Walras Elements of Pure Economics , 1954 .

[6]  E. Fama The Behavior of Stock-Market Prices , 1965 .

[7]  Jay C. Hsu,et al.  Modern Control Principles and Applications , 1968 .

[8]  E. Fama EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK* , 1970 .

[9]  F. Black,et al.  The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities , 1973, Journal of Political Economy.

[10]  Robert Lekachman,et al.  The Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes , 1973 .

[11]  Elizabeth C. Hirschman,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[12]  A D Puth,et al.  More heat than light. , 1974, Journal of rehabilitation.

[13]  M. Friedman On Milton Friedman , 1975 .

[14]  David V. Pritchett Econometric policy evaluation: A critique , 1976 .

[15]  D. Dickey,et al.  Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknown order , 1984 .

[16]  Mayergoyz,et al.  Mathematical models of hysteresis. , 1986, Physical review letters.

[17]  Francis X. Diebold,et al.  Unit roots in economic time series: a selective survey , 1988 .

[18]  M. Krasnosel’skiǐ,et al.  Systems with Hysteresis , 1989 .

[19]  Avinash Dixit,et al.  Investment and Hysteresis , 1992 .

[20]  David F. Hendry,et al.  Co-Integration, Error Correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-Stationary Data , 1993, Advanced texts in econometrics.

[21]  R. Day,et al.  Experiments in Decision, Organization and Exchange , 1993 .

[22]  J. Kagel,et al.  Handbook of Experimental Economics , 1997 .

[23]  Shlomo Zilberstein,et al.  Models of Bounded Rationality , 1995 .

[24]  M. Friedman THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY , 1995 .

[25]  Isaak D. Mayergoyz,et al.  Switching as an exit problem , 1995 .

[26]  Isaak D. Mayergoyz,et al.  Preisach model driven by stochastic inputs as a model for aftereffect , 1996 .

[27]  A. Rubinstein Modeling Bounded Rationality , 1998 .

[28]  Richard H. Thaler Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 14, Number 1—Winter 2000—Pages 133–141 From Homo Economicus to Homo Sapiens , 2022 .

[29]  R. Cross Hysteresis and Emu , 2000 .

[30]  A. M. Krasnosel'skii,et al.  A time-dependent Preisach model , 2001 .

[31]  R. Cont Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues , 2001 .

[32]  Matthias Göcke,et al.  Various Concepts of Hysteresis Applied in Economics , 2002 .

[33]  I. D. Mayergoyz,et al.  Optimal control of dynamical systems with Preisach hysteresis , 2002 .

[34]  R. Thaler,et al.  A Survey of Behavioral Finance , 2002 .

[35]  D. Kahneman A Psychological Perspective on Economics , 2003 .

[36]  C. Pissarides Book review: R. Leeson, A.W.H. Phillips: collected works in contemporary perspective , 2003 .

[37]  Valerie Cerra,et al.  Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery , 2005, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[38]  Rod Cross,et al.  A threshold model of investor psychology , 2005 .

[39]  J. Sethna,et al.  Random-field ising models of hysteresis , 2004, cond-mat/0406320.

[40]  Rod Cross,et al.  A mean-field model of investor behaviour , 2006 .

[41]  A. Pokrovskii,et al.  Hysteresis in the trade cycle , 2006 .

[42]  J. Bouchaud,et al.  Of songs and men: a model for multiple choice with herding , 2006, physics/0606224.

[43]  Rod Cross,et al.  Stylized facts from a threshold-based heterogeneous agent model , 2006, physics/0607290.

[44]  C. Bissell,et al.  Historical perspectives - The Moniac A Hydromechanical Analog Computer of the 1950s , 2007, IEEE Control Systems.

[45]  Rosario N. Mantegna,et al.  An Introduction to Econophysics: Contents , 1999 .

[46]  T. Borgersen,et al.  EXCHANGE RATE OVERSHOOTING AND PATH-DEPENDENCE IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE , 2007, Macroeconomic Dynamics.

[47]  Steven D. Levitt,et al.  What Do Laboratory Experiments Measuring Social Preferences Reveal About the Real World , 2007 .

[48]  H. Lamba,et al.  Market Statistics of a Psychology-Based Heterogeneous Agent Model , 2008 .

[49]  R. Cross,et al.  Modelling macroeconomic flows related to large ensembles of elementary exchange operations , 2008 .

[50]  H. Lamba,et al.  Rational expectations, psychology and inductive learning via moving thresholds , 2007, 0709.4242.

[51]  C. Bissell University ’ s repository of research publications and other research outputs Historical perspectives-The Moniac A Hydromechanical Analog Computer of the 1950 s , 2010 .

[52]  Veturia Chiroiu,et al.  ON THE HYSTERESIS OPERATORS , 2011 .

[53]  George M. Constantinides,et al.  Handbook of the Economics of Finance , 2013 .

[54]  P. Samuelson Proof that Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly , 2015 .

[55]  Jana Vogel,et al.  Differential Models Of Hysteresis , 2016 .

[56]  Peter Maurer,et al.  The Entropy Law And The Economic Process , 2016 .