A normative theory of argument strength

In this article, we argue for the general importance of normative theories of argument strength. We also provide some evidence based on our recent work on the fallacies as to why Bayesian probability might, in fact, be able to supply such an account. In the remainder of the article we discuss the general characteristics that make a specifically Bayesian approach desirable, and critically evaluate putative flaws of Bayesian probability that have been raised in the argumentation literature.

[1]  Predicting belief and belief change using a cognitive theory of argument and evidence , 1979 .

[2]  Dale Hample.  Predicting immediate belief change and adherence to argument claims , 1978 .

[3]  Robert H. Ennis.  Applying Soundness Standards to Qualified Reasoning , 2004 .

[4]  W. Slob,et al.  How to Distinguish Good and Bad Arguments: Dialogico-Rhetorical Normativity , 2002 .

[5]  Henry Prakken,et al.  Logics for Defeasible Argumentation , 2001 .

[6]  W. M. Bolstad.  Introduction to Bayesian Statistics , 2004 .

[7]  D. Walton.  A Pragmatic Theory of Fallacy , 1995 .

[8]  Deanna Kuhn,et al.  Connecting scientific and informal reasoning , 1993 .

[9]  M. Oaksford,et al.  How Convinced Should We Be by Negative Evidence , 2005 .

[10]  Nick Chater,et al.  The Rational Analysis Of Mind And Behavior , 2000, Synthese.

[11]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[12]  Christoph Lumer.  Praktische Argumentationstheorie : theoretische Grundlagen, praktische Begründung und Regeln wichtiger Argumentationsarten , 1990 .

[13]  Raymond Reiter,et al.  A Logic for Default Reasoning , 1987, Artif. Intell..

[14]  N. Chater,et al.  Rational models of cognition , 1998 .

[15]  Kevin B. Korb,et al.  Bayesian Informal Logic and Fallacy , 2004 .

[16]  D. Walton.  Arguments From Ignorance , 1995 .

[17]  R. T. Cox.  Probability, frequency and reasonable expectation , 1990 .

[18]  Burian,et al.  Psa 1994 : Proceedings of the 1994 Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association , 1990 .

[19]  Andrew S. Glassner,et al.  Circular Reasoning , 1998, IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications.

[20]  D. Budescu,et al.  Preferences and reasons for communicating probabilistic information in verbal or numerical terms , 1993 .

[21]  Jürg Kohlas,et al.  Probabilistic argumentation systems: A new way to combine logic with probability , 2003, J. Appl. Log..

[22]  Nick Chater,et al.  Rationality In An Uncertain World: Essays In The Cognitive Science Of Human Understanding , 1998 .

[23]  Robert S. Wyer,et al.  A probabilistic analysis of the relationships among belief and attitudes , 1970 .

[24]  K. Holyoak,et al.  The Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning , 2005 .

[25]  D. Annis.  Critical Thinking and Education , 1982 .

[26]  N. Chater,et al.  RATIONAL EXPLANATION OF THE SELECTION TASK , 1996 .

[27]  Ulrike Hahn,et al.  The Burden of Proof and Its Role in Argumentation , 2007 .

[28]  N. Chater,et al.  The Probability Heuristics Model of Syllogistic Reasoning , 1999, Cognitive Psychology.

[29]  Blair T. Johnson,et al.  Communication and Attitude Change: Causes, Processes, and Effects , 2005 .

[30]  Nuel D. Belnap,et al.  Entailment : the logic of relevance and necessity , 1975 .

[31]  W. Richards,et al.  Perception as Bayesian Inference , 2008 .

[32]  Paul Snow.  On the Correctness and Reasonableness of Cox's Theorem for Finite Domains , 1998, Comput. Intell..

[33]  Iris Tabak,et al.  Missing the point or missing the norms? Epistemological norms as predictors of students’ ability to identify fallacious arguments , 2004 .

[34]  John R. Anderson,et al.  The place of cognitive architectures in a rational analysis , 1988 .

[35]  Douglas Walton,et al.  Relevance in argumentation , 2003 .

[36]  Eric Horvitz,et al.  A Framework for Comparing Alternative Formalisms for Plausible Reasoning , 1986, AAAI.

[37]  P. Walley.  Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities , 1990 .

[38]  B. MacWhinney,et al.  The Crosslinguistic Study of Sentence Processing. , 1992 .

[39]  Effects with Multiple Causes: Evaluating Arguments Using the Subjective Probability Model , 2000 .

[40]  M. Oaksford,et al.  Circular arguments, begging the question and the formalization of argument strength , 2005 .

[41]  B. Williams,et al.  Making sense of humanity: Which slopes are slippery? , 1995 .

[42]  N. Chater,et al.  Against Logicist Cognitive Science , 1991 .

[43]  K. Popper.  The Propensity Interpretation of Probability , 1959 .

[44]  John R. Josephson,et al.  Abductive inference : computation, philosophy, technology , 1994 .

[45]  Maryellen C. MacDonald,et al.  Probabilistic constraints and syntactic ambiguity resolution , 1994 .

[46]  Elliott Sober,et al.  Bayesianism: its scope and limits , 2002 .

[47]  N. Chater,et al.  Rational models of cognition , 1998 .

[48]  Yair Neuman,et al.  The effect of contextual factors on the judgement of informal reasoning fallacies , 2006, Quarterly journal of experimental psychology.

[49]  F. H. Eemeren,et al.  A Systematic Theory of Argumentation: The pragma-dialectical approach , 2003 .

[50]  William J. McGuire,et al.  Cognitive consistency and attitude change. , 1960 .

[51]  Andrew P. Sage,et al.  Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence , 1987, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[52]  N. Chater,et al.  Précis of Bayesian Rationality: The Probabilistic Approach to Human Reasoning , 2009, Behavioral and Brain Sciences.

[53]  H. Siegel,et al.  Epistemic Normativity, Argumentation, and Fallacies , 1995 .

[54]  Using the Subjective Probability Model to Evaluate Academic Debate Arguments. , 1988 .

[55]  Gary Kemp,et al.  Critical Thinking: A Concise Guide , 2001 .

[56]  L. Rips.  Two Kinds of Reasoning , 2001 .

[57]  C. Lumer.  Reductionism in Fallacy Theory , 2000 .

[58]  Lance J. Rips,et al.  Reasoning and conversation , 1998 .

[59]  H. Siegel.  Educating Reason: Rationality, Critical Thinking and Education , 1988 .

[60]  A. Goldman,et al.  An Epistemological Approach to Argumentation , 2004 .

[61]  Eric Lode,et al.  Slippery Slope Arguments and Legal Reasoning , 1999 .

[62]  G. Harman.  The Inference to the Best Explanation , 1965 .

[63]  Nick Chater,et al.  A rational analysis of the selection task as optimal data selection. , 1994 .

[64]  Dale Hample.  Testing a Model of Value Argument and Evidence. , 1977 .

[65]  R. Wyer.  Some implications of the “Socratic effect” for alternative models of cognitive consistency1 , 1974 .

[66]  John Earman,et al.  Bayes or bust , 1992 .

[67]  Yair Neuman,et al.  The Role of Text Representation in Students’ Ability to Identify Fallacious Arguments , 2003, The Quarterly journal of experimental psychology. A, Human experimental psychology.

[68]  N. Chater,et al.  Ten years of the rational analysis of cognition , 1999, Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

[69]  B. MacWhinney,et al.  Functionalism and the competition model , 1989 .

[70]  Tomoji Shogenji.  Self-Dependent Justification Without Circularity , 2000, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.

[71]  L. J. Savage,et al.  The Foundations of Statistics , 1955 .

[72]  John Fox,et al.  Arguing about beliefs and actions , 1998, Applications of Uncertainty Formalisms.

[73]  F.J.M.M. Veltman,et al.  Logics for conditionals. , 1985 .

[74]  Tim Heysse.  Why Logic Doesn‘t Matter in the (Philosophical) Study of Argumentation , 1997 .

[75]  John L. Pollock,et al.  Defeasible reasoning with variable degrees of justification , 2001, Artif. Intell..

[76]  George Boger.  Subordinating Truth – Is Acceptability Acceptable? , 2005 .

[77]  David Miller,et al.  Critical Rationalism: A Restatement and Defence , 1998 .

[78]  M. Oaksford,et al.  A Bayesian approach to the argument from ignorance. , 2004, Canadian journal of experimental psychology = Revue canadienne de psychologie experimentale.

[79]  Ralph H. Johnson.  Manifest Rationality: A Pragmatic Theory of Argument , 2000 .

[80]  Alvin I. Goldman,et al.  Argumentation and Social Epistemology , 1994 .

[81]  Simon Parsons,et al.  Qualitative methods for reasoning under uncertainty , 2001 .

[82]  Raymond Reiter,et al.  On Reasoning by Default , 1978, TINLAP.

[83]  Robert S. Wyer,et al.  Quantitative Prediction of Belief and Opinion Change: A Further Test of a Subjective Probability Model. , 1970 .

[84]  Ch. Perelman,et al.  The New Rhetoric: A Treatise on Argumentation , 1971 .

[85]  E. Higgins,et al.  Social psychology: Handbook of basic principles. , 1996 .

[86]  C. Lumer.  Practical Arguments for Theoretical Theses , 1997 .

[87]  Edward E. Smith,et al.  Category-Based Induction , 1990 .

[88]  J. Freedman,et al.  Compliance without pressure: the foot-in-the-door technique. , 1966, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[89]  Argumentation and Interpersonal Justification , 1997 .

[90]  Elizabeth C. Hirschman,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[91]  Yair Neuman.  Go ahead, prove that God does not exist! On high school students’ ability to deal with fallacious arguments , 2003 .

[92]  Eveline T. Feteris,et al.  A Survey of 25 Years of Research on Legal Argumentation , 1997 .