Extinction and the spatial dynamics of biodiversity

The fossil record amply shows that the spatial fabric of extinction has profoundly shaped the biosphere; this spatial dimension provides a powerful context for integration of paleontological and neontological approaches. Mass extinctions evidently alter extinction selectivity, with many factors losing effectiveness except for a positive relation between survivorship and geographic range at the clade level (confirmed in reanalyses of end-Cretaceous extinction data). This relation probably also holds during “normal” times, but changes both slope and intercept with increasing extinction. The strong geographical component to clade dynamics can obscure causation in the extinction of a feature or a clade, owing to hitchhiking effects on geographic range, so that multifactorial analyses are needed. Some extinctions are spatially complex, and regional extinctions might either reset a diversity ceiling or create a diversification debt open to further diversification or invasion. Evolutionary recoveries also exhibit spatial dynamics, including regional differences in invasibilty, and expansion of clades from the tropics fuels at least some recoveries, as well as biodiversity dynamics during normal times. Incumbency effects apparently correlate more closely with extinction intensities than with standing diversities, so that regions with higher local and global extinctions are more subject to invasion; the latest Cenozoic temperate zones evidently received more invaders than the tropics or poles, but this dynamic could shift dramatically if tropical diversity is strongly depleted. The fossil record can provide valuable insights, and their application to present-day issues will be enhanced by partitioning past and present-day extinctions by driving mechanism rather than emphasizing intensity.

[1]  Andy Purvis,et al.  Phylogeny and Conservation , 2009 .

[2]  D. Erwin.  Extinction as the loss of evolutionary history , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[3]  J. Jackson,et al.  Ecological extinction and evolution in the brave new ocean , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[4]  Kate E. Jones,et al.  Phylogenetic trees and the future of mammalian biodiversity , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[5]  A. Barnosky.  Megafauna biomass tradeoff as a driver of Quaternary and future extinctions , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[6]  T. Lovejoy.  Climate change and biodiversity. , 2008, Revue scientifique et technique.

[7]  M. Huber,et al.  Pacific Ocean and Cenozoic evolution of climate , 2008 .

[8]  J. W. Valentine,et al.  Incumbency, diversity, and latitudinal gradients , 2008, Paleobiology.

[9]  David Jablonski,et al.  Biotic Interactions and Macroevolution: Extensions and Mismatches Across Scales and Levels , 2008, Evolution; international journal of organic evolution.

[10]  D. Bottjer,et al.  A TEST OF BIOGEOGRAPHICAL, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND ECOLOGICAL EFFECT ON MIDDLE AND LATE TRIASSIC BRACHIOPOD AND BIVALVE ABUNDANCE PATTERNS , 2008 .

[11]  J. W. Valentine,et al.  Contrarian clade confirms the ubiquity of spatial origination patterns in the production of latitudinal diversity gradients , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[12]  M. Powell.  Geographic range and genus longevity of late Paleozoic brachiopods , 2007, Paleobiology.

[13]  R. Ricklefs,et al.  Estimating diversification rates from phylogenetic information. , 2007, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[14]  K. McConway,et al.  Prediction of extinction in plants: interaction of extrinsic threats and life history traits. , 2007, Ecology.

[15]  Alan Hastings,et al.  Ecological and evolutionary insights from species invasions. , 2007, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[16]  M. Patzkowsky,et al.  Geographic variation in turnover and recovery from the Late Ordovician mass extinction , 2007 .

[17]  P. Marquet,et al.  Selective extinction of late Neogene bivalves on the temperate Pacific coast of South America , 2007 .

[18]  R. Ricklefs.  History and Diversity: Explorations at the Intersection of Ecology and Evolution , 2007, The American Naturalist.

[19]  John J. Wiens,et al.  Global Patterns of Diversification and Species Richness in Amphibians , 2007, The American Naturalist.

[20]  José Alexandre Felizola Diniz-Filho,et al.  Climate, Niche Conservatism, and the Global Bird Diversity Gradient , 2007, The American Naturalist.

[21]  K. Roy,et al.  Origination, Extinction, and Dispersal: Integrative Models for Understanding Present‐Day Diversity Gradients* , 2007, The American Naturalist.

[22]  A. Mcgowan,et al.  THE SHAPE OF THE PHANEROZOIC MARINE PALAEODIVERSITY CURVE: HOW MUCH CAN BE PREDICTED FROM THE SEDIMENTARY ROCK RECORD OF WESTERN EUROPE? , 2007 .

[23]  A. Smith.  Marine diversity through the Phanerozoic: problems and prospects , 2007, Journal of the Geological Society.

[24]  R. Cifelli,et al.  Evolutionary biology: Re-crowning mammals , 2007, Nature.

[25]  S. Finnegan,et al.  The effect of geographic range on extinction risk during background and mass extinction , 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[26]  Nancy Knowlton,et al.  Evolution and the latitudinal diversity gradient: speciation, extinction and biogeography. , 2007, Ecology letters.

[27]  D. Schluter,et al.  The Latitudinal Gradient in Recent Speciation and Extinction Rates of Birds and Mammals , 2007, Science.

[28]  D. Jablonski.  SCALE AND HIERARCHY IN MACROEVOLUTION , 2007 .

[29]  S. Stanley.  An Analysis of the History of Marine Animal Diversity , 2007 .

[30]  T J Stohlgren,et al.  The invasion paradox: reconciling pattern and process in species invasions. , 2007, Ecology.

[31]  J. W. Valentine,et al.  Out of the Tropics: Evolutionary Dynamics of the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient , 2006, Science.

[32]  G. Escarguel,et al.  The Early Triassic ammonoid recovery: Paleoclimatic significance of diversity gradients , 2006 .

[33]  J. T. Smith,et al.  Selectivity during background extinction: Plio-Pleistocene scallops in California , 2006, Paleobiology.

[34]  D. Jablonski,et al.  Larval Ecology, Geographic Range, and Species Survivorship in Cretaceous Mollusks: Organismic versus Species‐Level Explanations , 2006, The American Naturalist.

[35]  H. Lenihan,et al.  Depletion, Degradation, and Recovery Potential of Estuaries and Coastal Seas , 2006, Science.

[36]  J. W. Valentine,et al.  Assessing the fidelity of the fossil record by using marine bivalves. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[37]  K. Bandel,et al.  Typical Triassic Gondwanan floral elements in the Upper Permian of the paleotropics , 2006 .

[38]  A. Mcgowan.  Ammonoid recovery from the Late Permian mass extinction event , 2005 .

[39]  K. Kaiho,et al.  Early Triassic recovery of the brachiopod faunas from the end-Permian mass extinction: A global review , 2005 .

[40]  K. Gaston,et al.  Heritability of Geographic Range Sizes Revisited: A Reply to Hunt et al. , 2005, The American Naturalist.

[41]  D. Jablonski,et al.  Species‐Level Heritability Reaffirmed: A Comment on “On the Heritability of Geographic Range Sizes” , 2005, The American Naturalist.

[42]  R. Lande,et al.  Diversity, Endemism, and Age Distributions in Macroevolutionary Sources and Sinks , 2005, The American Naturalist.

[43]  David Jablonski,et al.  Mass extinctions and macroevolution , 2005, Paleobiology.

[44]  S. Kidwell.  Shell Composition Has No Net Impact on Large-Scale Evolutionary Patterns in Mollusks , 2005, Science.

[45]  E. Paradis.  STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF DIVERSIFICATION WITH SPECIES TRAITS , 2005, Evolution; international journal of organic evolution.

[46]  W. Kiessling,et al.  Extinction and recovery patterns of scleractinian corals at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary , 2004 .

[47]  R. Bambach,et al.  Did Alpha Diversity Increase during the Phanerozoic? Lifting the Veils of Taphonomic, Latitudinal, and Environmental Biases , 2004, The Journal of Geology.

[48]  C. Marshall,et al.  Removing bias from diversity curves: the effects of spatially organized biodiversity on sampling-standardization , 2004, Paleobiology.

[49]  A. Knoll,et al.  Origination, extinction, and mass depletions of marine diversity , 2004, Paleobiology.

[50]  E. Paradis.  Can extinction rates be estimated without fossils? , 2004, Journal of theoretical biology.

[51]  M. Wara,et al.  Regional climate shifts caused by gradual global cooling in the Pliocene epoch , 2004, Nature.

[52]  Helmut Hillebrand,et al.  On the Generality of the Latitudinal Diversity Gradient , 2004, The American Naturalist.

[53]  Simon P Blomberg,et al.  Extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in the decline and extinction of Australian marsupials , 2003, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[54]  Kaustuv Roy,et al.  The Impact of the Pull of the Recent on the History of Marine Diversity , 2003, Science.

[55]  Michael Foote,et al.  Origination and Extinction through the Phanerozoic: A New Approach , 2003, The Journal of Geology.

[56]  M. Pagel,et al.  Phylogenetic Analysis and Comparative Data: A Test and Review of Evidence , 2002, The American Naturalist.

[57]  R. Jansson,et al.  The Fate of Clades in a World of Recurrent Climatic Change: Milankovitch Oscillations and Evolution , 2002 .

[58]  T. Steuber,et al.  Catastrophic extinction of Caribbean rudist bivalves at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary , 2002 .

[59]  D. Jablonski.  Survival without recovery after mass extinctions , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[60]  J. Todd,et al.  The ecology of extinction: molluscan feeding and faunal turnover in the Caribbean Neogene , 2002, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences.

[61]  J. Crame.  Evolution of taxonomic diversity gradients in the marine realm: a comparison of Late Jurassic and Recent bivalve faunas , 2002, Paleobiology.

[62]  J. Lockwood,et al.  Extinction in a field of bullets: a search for causes in the decline of the world's freshwater fishes , 2001 .

[63]  J. Jackson,et al.  Measuring Past Biodiversity , 2001, Science.

[64]  K. Bjorndal,et al.  Historical Overfishing and the Recent Collapse of Coastal Ecosystems , 2001, Science.

[65]  David Jablonski,et al.  Lessons from the past: Evolutionary impacts of mass extinctions , 2001, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[66]  P. Monegatti,et al.  Taxonomic diversity and stratigraphic distribution of Mediterranean Pliocene bivalves , 2001 .

[67]  D. Erwin.  Lessons from the past: Biotic recoveries from mass extinctions , 2000, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[68]  Marjorie J. Wonham,et al.  Invasion of Coastal Marine Communities in North America: Apparent Patterns, Processes, and Biases , 2000 .

[69]  I. Owens,et al.  Ecological basis of extinction risk in birds: habitat loss versus human persecution and introduced predators. , 2000, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[70]  John Alroy,et al.  New methods for quantifying macroevolutionary patterns and processes , 2000, Paleobiology.

[71]  M. Oda,et al.  Molluscan response to early Pleistocene rapid warming in the Sea of Japan , 2000 .

[72]  J. Crame.  Evolution of taxonomic diversity gradients in the marine realm: evidence from the composition of Recent bivalve faunas , 2000, Paleobiology.

[73]  T. Steuber.  Skeletal growth rates of Upper Cretaceous rudist bivalves: implications for carbonate production and organism-environment feedbacks , 2000, Geological Society, London, Special Publications.

[74]  J. Alroy.  The fossil record of North American mammals: evidence for a Paleocene evolutionary radiation. , 1999, Systematic biology.

[75]  W. Ausich,et al.  Evolutionary significance of differential species longevity in Osagean–Meramecian (Mississippian) crinoid clades , 1998, Paleobiology.

[76]  D. Jablonski,et al.  Geographic variation in the molluscan recovery from the end-cretaceous extinction , 1998, Science.

[77]  David R. Anderson,et al.  Model Selection and Multimodel Inference , 2003 .

[78]  J. W. Valentine,et al.  Higher Taxa in Biodiversity Studies: Patterns from Eastern Pacific Marine Molluscs , 1996 .

[79]  D. Raup,et al.  Selectivity of end-Cretaceous marine bivalve extinctions. , 1995, Science.

[80]  D M Raup,et al.  The role of extinction in evolution. , 1994, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[81]  D. Jablonski,et al.  Geography of end-Cretaceous marine bivalve extinctions. , 1993, Science.

[82]  P. Allison,et al.  Paleolatitudinal sampling bias, Phanerozoic species diversity, and the end-Permian extinction , 1993 .

[83]  D. Hosmer,et al.  Applied Logistic Regression , 1991 .

[84]  T. Hansen.  Early Tertiary radiation of marine molluscs and the long-term effects of the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction , 1988, Paleobiology.

[85]  D. Jablonski.  Background and Mass Extinctions: The Alternation of Macroevolutionary Regimes , 1986, Science.

[86]  R. Anstey.  Bryozoan provinces and patterns of generic evolution and extinction in the Late Ordovician of North America , 1986 .

[87]  P. McCall,et al.  Biotic interactions in recent and fossil benthic communities , 1983 .

[88]  R. Anstey.  Taxonomic survivorship and morphologic complexity in Paleozoic bryozoan genera , 1978, Paleobiology.

[89]  J. W. Valentine,et al.  Comparability of modern and ancient marine faunal provinces , 1977, Paleobiology.