Scenarios on the future of biotechnology

Abstract The major areas of research and development in biotechnology are maturing at a rapid rate, and may soon converge with one another. These emerging biotechnology areas range from the development of new medicines and drugs, genetically engineered foods, biologically controlled industrial manufacturing processes, and biologically based computing devices to the creation of new industrial materials and devices based upon biological structures and the use of biotechnology in food production. Each of these research areas carries the potential for strong societal reaction. To explore the potential impact of biotechnology on society, two fundamental drivers that influence societal acceptance of biotechnology are described. First, the extent to which technological integration proceeds may strongly impact the way society uses and perceives biotechnology. Second, the degree to which the public eventually accepts biotechnologically derived products and processes as legitimate and reliable alternatives to current products may shape both market demand and public policy. Taken together, these drivers suggest four discrete alternative scenarios for the future of biotechnology. Implications of these scenarios are discussed.

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