River flow modelling and forecasting

1. Introduction.- 1.1 Objectives.- 1.2 Objectives of forecasting.- 1.3 Criteria for successful forecasts.- 1.4 Systems approach.- 1.5 Principles and elements of river flow forecasting.- 1.6 Concluding remarks.- Symbols.- References.- 2. Deterministic Catchment Modelling.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 Linearity/Non-linearity.- 2.3 Analysis/Synthesis.- 2.4 Illustrative example.- 2.5 Linear treatment of catchment behaviour.- 2.6 Non-linear treatment of catchment behaviour.- Symbols.- References.- 3. Theory of Flood Routing.- 3.1 Continuity equation for unsteady flow.- 3.2 Momentum equation for unsteady flow.- 3.3 Equations of characteristics for unsteady flow.- 3.4 Boundary conditions in flood routing.- 3.5 The finite difference approach.- 3.6 Characteristic finite difference schemes.- 3.7 Explicit finite difference schemes.- 3.8 Implicit finite difference schemes.- 3.9 Linearisation of the St. Venant equations.- 3.10 Simplification of the St. Venant equations.- 3.11 Comparison of hydraulic solutions.- 3.12 Nature of hydrologic methods.- 3.13 Linear conceptual models.- 3.14 Comparison of linear hydrologic models.- 3.15 Calibration of linear models.- 3.16 Non-linear hydrologic models.- Symbols.- References.- 4. Low Flow Sustained by Ground Water.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Discussion of rainfall-discharge relations.- 4.3 Examples.- Symbols.- References.- 5. Forecasting Meltwater from Snow-Covered Areas and from Glacier Basins.- 5.1 Introductory remarks.- 5.2 The snow cover and its determination.- 5.3 The determination of the meltrates.- 5.4 Practical methods to determine the meltrates.- 5.5 Operational forecasting equations for glacier basins where past records are available.- 5.6 Thermal and capillary retention capacity.- 5.7 Long range, seasonal forecasting.- Symbols.- References.- 6. Time-Series Methods and Recursive Estimation in Hydrological Systems Analysis.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 The simplest first order, linear hydrological model.- 6.3 More complicated linear hydrological models.- 6.4 Recursive estimation of a simple time-series model.- 6.5 Recursive estimation of general linear time-series models.- 6.6 Model structure (order) identification.- 6.7 Flow modelling for the river Wyre.- 6.8 Time-variable parameter estimation.- 6.9 Salinity variations in the Peel Inlet-Harvey Estuary Western Australia.- 6.10 Time-series analysis and flow forecasting.- 6.11 Flow forecasting and the Kalman Filter.- 6.12 The Extended Kalman Filter.- 6.13 Conclusions.- Acknowledgements.- Symbols.- Appendix 1. The Microcaptain Computer Program Package.- References.- 7. Relationship between Theory and Practice of Real-Time River Flow Forecasting.- 7.1 Link between theoretical chapters and case studies.- 7.2 Model input fields.- 7.3 Theory versus practice in real-time river flow forecasting.- 7.4 Conclusions.- References.- 8. Case Studies in Real-Time Hydrological Forecasting from the UK.- 8.1 Introduction.- 8.2 Real-time flow forecasting system for the river Dee.- 8.3 The Haddington flood warning system.- 8.4 An on-line monitoring, data management and water quality forecasting system for the Bedford Ouse river basin.- 8.5 Discussion.- Symbols.- References.- 9. River Flow Simulation.- 9.1 Introduction.- 9.2 Finite difference methods.- 9.3 Numerical properties.- 9.4 The Delft Hydraulics Laboratory method.- 9.5 Practical aspects.- 9.6 Case study: Flood control of the rivers Parana and Paraguay.- 9.7 Strategy for implementation of forecasting models.- Symbols.- References.- 10. The Forecasting and Warning System of 'Rijkswaterstaat' for the River Rhine.- 10.1 Introduction.- 10.2 General description of Rijkswaterstaat and its warning services.- 10.3 Organization of the riverflood warning system.- 10.4 The empirical forecasting model.- 10.5 The multiple linear regression model.- 10.6 Low flow forecasting.- References.- 11. Short Range Flood Forecasting on the River Rhine.- 11.1 Introduction.- 11.2 Flow forecasting.- 11.3 A deterministic hydrological model for the river Rhine.- 11.4 A stochastic real-time forecasting model.- 11.5 Conclusions.- Symbols.- References.- 12. Design and Operation of Forecasting Operational Real-Time Hydrological Systems (Forth).- 12.1 Introduction.- 12.2 Components of a FORTH system.- 12.3 Selection of forecasting procedures.- 12.4 Forecast updating and evaluation (WMO, 1983).- 12.5 Benefit and cost analysis of hydrological forecasts.- 12.6 Examples of established FORTH systems.- Symbols.- References.- Annex I.- Annex II.- 13. Case Studies on Real-Time River Flow Forecasting.- 13.1 Introduction.- 13.2 The Santa Ynez River, California, USA.- 13.3 Derwent River system, England.- 13.4 Orchy River system, Scotland.- Symbols.- References.