An accident waiting to happen: a spatial approach to proactive pedestrian planning.

There are about 75,000 pedestrian crashes in the United States each year. Approximately 5000 of these crashes are fatal, accounting for 12% of all roadway deaths. On college campuses, pedestrian exposure and crash-risk can be quite high. Therefore, we analyzed pedestrian crashes on the campus of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (UNC) as a test case for our spatially-oriented prototype tool that combines perceived-risk (survey) data with police-reported crash data to obtain a more complete picture of pedestrian crash-risk. We use spatial analysis techniques combined with regression models to understand factors associated with risk. The spatial analysis is based on comparing two distributions, i.e. the locations of perceived-risk with police-reported crash locations. The differences between the two distributions are statistically significant, implying that certain locations on campus are perceived as dangerous, though pedestrian crashes have not yet occurred there, and there are actual locations of police-reported crashes that are not perceived to be dangerous by pedestrians or drivers. Furthermore, we estimate negative binomial regression models to combine pedestrian and automobile exposure with roadway characteristics and spatial/land use information. The models show that high exposure, incomplete sidewalks and high crosswalk density are associated with greater observed and perceived pedestrian crash-risk. Additionally, we found that people perceive a lower risk near university libraries, stadiums, and academic buildings, despite the occurrence of crashes.

[1]  Nicholas J. Ward,et al.  Driver approach behaviour at an unprotected railway crossing before and after enhancement of lateral sight distances: An experimental investigation of a risk perception and behavioural compensation hypothesis , 1996 .

[2]  J. Graham.  Target Risk: Dealing with the Danger of Death, Disease and Damage in Everyday Decisions. , 1998 .

[3]  J. Stewart,et al.  Safety effects of marked vs unmarked crosswalks at uncontrolled locations: executive summary and recommended guidelines , 2002 .

[4]  Y-L Chu,et al.  SAFETY/GIS MODELS REVIEWED AND RELATED TO LONG ISLAND ARTERIAL NEEDS STUDY , 1999 .

[5]  W. Andrew Harrell,et al.  Factors influencing pedestrian cautiousness in crossing streets , 1991 .

[6]  P. Burns,et al.  Risk taking in male taxi drivers: Relationships among personality, observational data and driver records , 1995 .

[7]  A. Butchart,et al.  Perceptions of injury causes and solutions in a Johannesburg township: implications for prevention. , 2000, Social science & medicine.

[8]  L H Nitz,et al.  Spatial analysis of Honolulu motor vehicle crashes: I. Spatial patterns. , 1995, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[9]  Arthur Getis,et al.  Models of spatial processes : an approach to the study of point, line, and area patterns , 1979 .

[10]  R. Näätänen,et al.  Road user behavior and traffic accidents , 1976 .

[11]  David L. Greene,et al.  TRANSPORTATION STATISTICS ANNUAL REPORT 1996 , 1995 .

[12]  Gerald J.S. Wilde,et al.  Risk optimization training and transfer , 1998 .

[13]  P. Taylor.  Quantitative methods in geography: An introduction to spatial analysis , 1977 .

[14]  Lawrence Nitz,et al.  Moped safety in Honolulu, Hawaii , 1995 .

[15]  Pravin K. Trivedi,et al.  Regression Analysis of Count Data , 1998 .

[16]  G Lapidus,et al.  Using a geographic information system to understand child pedestrian injury. , 1994, American journal of public health.

[17]  K Austin,et al.  AN ADVANCED SYSTEM FOR THE STUDY OF CHILDREN'S SAFETY ON THE JOURNEYS TO AND FROM SCHOOL , 1995 .

[18]  M R Karim.  TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN A UNIVERSITY ENVIRONMENT , 1992 .

[19]  Trevor C. Bailey,et al.  Interactive Spatial Data Analysis , 1995 .

[20]  Ronald G. Hughes,et al.  THE PERCEIVED EFFECTIVENESS OF SIDEWALKS AND OTHER PEDESTRIAN SAFETY TREATMENTS AS COUNTERMEASURES FOR WALKING ALONG ROADWAY CRASHES , 1999 .

[21]  Asad J. Khattak,et al.  Method of Improving Pedestrian Safety Proactively with Geographic Information Systems: Example from a College Campus , 2001 .

[22]  Bruce W Landis,et al.  Modeling the Roadside Walking Environment: Pedestrian Level of Service , 2001 .

[23]  Gerald J.S. Wilde,et al.  Risk perception, risk taking, accident involvement and the need for stimulation , 1996 .

[24]  B. F. Herms.  PEDESTRIAN CROSSWALK STUDY: ACCIDENTS IN PAINTED AND UNPAINTED CROSSWALKS , 1972 .

[25]  A S Hakkert,et al.  ARCINFO-BASED GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR ROAD SAFETY ANALYSES AND IMPROVEMENT , 1996 .

[26]  J. T. Wulu,et al.  Regression analysis of count data , 2002 .

[27]  Heikki Summala,et al.  Accident risk and driver behaviour , 1996 .