Scenarios and models for exploring future trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services changes. Final report to the European Commission, DG Environment on Contract

Recommended citation: IEEP, Alterra, Ecologic, PBL and UNEP-WCMC (2009) Scenarios and models for exploring future trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services changes. This report provides the full results of the European Commission (DG Environment) contracted study on " Scenarios and models for exploring future trends of biodiversity and ecosystem services changes ". The overall purpose of the study is to clarify which models and scenarios are being used and can be used to explore the developments of biodiversity and ecosystems in light of different assumptions of drivers and policies. This will be of general use for policy analysis and reflection, and it will also be of specific use to the second phase of the initiative on The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB). TEEB aims to build future visions and projections taking into account alternative policies and assess their potential impacts on ecosystem services and the cost of their loss, both in biophysical and in monetary terms. This study has built on previous supporting studies for TEEB, in particular the The Cost of Policy Inaction (COPI): the Case of Not Meeting the 2010 Biodiversity Target (Braat and ten Brink, 2008), and recent key global and regional environmental assessments, which have included model and scenario based projections of changes in biodiversity and ecosystems and their impacts on ecosystems services and human well being. In particular, this study has: • Reviewed the different scenarios and models used to explore future trends in biodiversity loss and ecosystem change and their associated impacts on ecosystem services (see Section 2.6 for detailed conclusions). • Summarised the key findings from recent global and regional assessments (see Section 3.11 for detailed conclusions). • Assessed the limitations of existing models with respect to their suitability for producing robust projections of changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (see Section 4.4 for detailed conclusions). • Instigated a peer-review of the study's' initial conclusions during an expert workshop (see meeting report in Chapter 5). • Proposed a set of options for suitable models and scenarios to be used in future studies for TEEB and beyond (see Chapter 6). The key overall conclusions and recommendations from this study are: • There are a large number of modelling tools available today (which differ in focus, timeline, assumptions, spatial resolution, sensitivities and in choice of indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem services), and most are able to capture various forms of ecosystem service provisioning to …

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