Using Dynamic Modeling to Scope Environmental Problems and Build Consensus

/ This paper assesses the changing role of dynamic modeling for understanding and managing complex ecological economic systems. It discusses new modeling tools for problem scoping and consensus building among a broad range of stakeholders and describes four case studies in which dynamic modeling has been used to collect and organize data, synthesize knowledge, and build consensus about the management of complex systems. The case studies range from industrial systems (mining, smelting, and refining of iron and steel in the United States) to ecosystems (Louisiana coastal wetlands, and Fynbos ecosystems in South Africa) to linked ecological economic systems (Maryland's Patuxent River basin in the United States). They illustrate uses of dynamic modeling to include stakeholders in all stages of consensus building, ranging from initial problem scoping to model development. The resultant models are the first stage in a three-stage modeling process that includes research and management models as the later stages.KEY WORDS: Dynamic modeling; Scoping; Consensus building; Environmental management; Ecosystem management; Policy making; Graphical programming languages

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