The Role of Built Environment's Physical Urban Form in Supporting Rapid Tsunami Evacuations: Using Computer-Based Models and Real-World Data as Examination Tools

Cities are increasingly becoming hot-spots for nature-originated disasters. While the role of the urban built environment in fostering disaster resilience has been recognized for some time, it has been difficult to translate this potential into practice. This is especially challenging in the case of rapid onset crises such as near-field tsunamis when appropriate urban forms have to support the populations’ ability to autonomously carry out safe and timely responses. In this respect, much of current research remains focused on large-scale elements of urban configuration (streets, squares, parks, etc.) through which people move during an emergency. In contrast, the critical micro-scale of evacuees’ experiences within the built environment is not commonly examined. This paper addresses this shortfall through a macro- and micro-scale analysis of a near-field tsunami scenario affecting the city of Vina del Mar, Chile, including a mixed-methods approach that combines computer-based models and fieldwork. The results show significant macro-scale tsunami vulnerability throughout major areas of the city, which nonetheless could be mitigated by existing nearby high ground and an urban form that allows short evacuation times. However, micro-scale outcomes show comparatively deficient spatial conditions that during an emergency might lead to dangerous outcomes including bottlenecks, falls and panic. Vertical evacuation, in turn, is confirmed as a suitable option for reducing vulnerability, but further examination of each shelter’s characteristics is required.

[1]  Nabil Mohareb Emergency evacuation model: accessibility as a starting point , 2011 .

[2]  Cyril Mokrani,et al.  Examining the role of urban form in supporting rapid and safe tsunami evacuations: a multi-scalar analysis in Viña del Mar, Chile , 2018 .

[3]  Stefan Scheer,et al.  A generic framework for tsunami evacuation planning , 2012 .

[4]  Jim Ercolano MSci Pedestrian Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management of Mass Evacuations on Foot: State-of-the-Art and Best Practices , 2008 .

[5]  A. V. Nes,et al.  Space and panic : The application of space syntax to understand the relationship between mortality rates and spatial configuration in Banda Aceh during the tsunami 2004 , 2012 .

[6]  R. Shaw,et al.  Chapter 9 Climate change adaptation and urban risk management , 2010 .

[7]  Brian W. Baetz,et al.  EVALUATING PEDESTRIAN CONNECTIVITY FOR SUBURBAN SUSTAINABILITY , 2001 .

[8]  Andy Ju An Wang,et al.  Path Planning for Virtual Human Motion Using Improved A* Star Algorithm , 2010, 2010 Seventh International Conference on Information Technology: New Generations.

[9]  J. Flanagan,et al.  The Integrative Review. , 2018, International journal of nursing knowledge.

[10]  S. K. Singh,et al.  The 1985 Central Chile Earthquake: A Repeat of Previous Great Earthquakes in the Region? , 1986, Science.

[11]  E. J. Kaiser,et al.  Unleashing the Power of Planning to Create Disaster-Resistant Communities , 1999 .

[12]  M. Pelling The Vulnerability of Cities: Natural Disasters and Social Resilience , 2005 .

[13]  William Rand,et al.  An Introduction to Agent-Based Modeling: Modeling Natural, Social, and Engineered Complex Systems with NetLogo , 2015 .

[14]  Yuji Hasemi,et al.  Requirements and Verification Methodology for the Design Performance of Tsunami-Hinan Buildings (Temporary Tsunami Refuge Building) , 2010 .

[16]  Alan March,et al.  Urban morphology as a tool for supporting tsunami rapid resilience: A case study of Talcahuano, Chile , 2014 .

[17]  G. Clay Real Places: An Unconventional Guide to America's Generic Landscape , 1994 .

[18]  San Luis Obispo,et al.  The Role of the Built Environment in the Recovery of Cities and Communities from Extreme Events , 2012, International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters.

[19]  Análisis de tendencias en movilidad en el Gran Valparaíso: El caso de la movilidad laboral , 2012 .

[20]  A Oliver-Smith,et al.  Successes and failures in post-disaster resettlement. , 1991, Disasters.

[21]  Michael Southworth,et al.  The Evolving Metropolis: Studies of Community, Neighborhood, and Street Form at the Urban Edge , 1993 .

[22]  E. Gencer,et al.  Natural Disasters, Urban Vulnerability, and Risk Management: A Theoretical Overview , 2013 .

[23]  C. Field Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaption , 2012 .

[24]  Sergio Ruiz,et al.  Historical and recent large megathrust earthquakes in Chile , 2018 .

[25]  C. Lomnitz Major earthquakes and tsunamis in Chile during the period 1535 to 1955 , 1970 .

[26]  David Satterthwaite,et al.  From everyday hazards to disasters: the accumulation of risk in urban areas , 2003 .

[27]  Dilanthi Amaratunga,et al.  An integrative review of the built environment discipline's role in the development of society's resilience to disasters , 2010 .

[28]  Nick Tyler,et al.  An explicit study on walking speeds of pedestrians on stairs , 2004 .

[29]  J. Herrera,et al.  Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities , 2019, Earthquake Spectra.

[30]  Alan March,et al.  A Better Future from Imagining the Worst: Land Use Planning and Training Responses to Natural Disaster , 2007 .

[32]  Scira Menoni,et al.  Is relocation a good answer to prevent risk , 2008 .

[33]  Stefan Dech,et al.  "Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster - Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia , 2009 .

[34]  C. Wamsler Cities, Disaster Risk and Adaptation , 2013 .

[35]  Mulyo Harris Pradono,et al.  Tsunami Disaster Mitigation by Integrating Comprehensive Countermeasures in Padang City, Indonesia , 2012 .

[36]  W. Tobler,et al.  Three Presentations on Geographical Analysis and Modeling: Non- Isotropic Geographic Modeling; Speculations on the Geometry of Geography; and Global Spatial Analysis (93-1) , 1993 .

[37]  W. Tobler,et al.  THREE PRESENTATIONS ON GEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS AND MODELING , 1993 .

[38]  N. Wood,et al.  Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions , 2015 .

[39]  Richard G. Little,et al.  Controlling Cascading Failure: Understanding the Vulnerabilities of Interconnected Infrastructures , 2002 .

[40]  Alan March,et al.  An urban form response to disaster vulnerability: Improving tsunami evacuation in Iquique, Chile , 2016 .

[41]  R. F. Goldman,et al.  Terrain coefficients for energy cost prediction. , 1972, Journal of applied physiology.

[42]  Patricio A. Catalán,et al.  Source of the 1730 Chilean earthquake from historical records: Implications for the future tsunami hazard on the coast of Metropolitan Chile , 2017 .

[43]  N. Shuto,et al.  A short history of tsunami research and countermeasures in Japan , 2009, Proceedings of the Japan Academy. Series B, Physical and biological sciences.

[44]  R. Cienfuegos,et al.  Identification and classification of urban micro-vulnerabilities in tsunami evacuation routes for the city of Iquique, Chile , 2018, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences.

[45]  Richard Eisner,et al.  Designing for Tsunamis: Seven Principles for Planning and Designing for Tsunami Hazards , 2001 .

[46]  G. Caceres,et al.  Para entender la urbanización del litoral:: el balneario en la conformación del Gran Valparaíso (siglos XIX y XX) , 2003 .

[47]  Jennifer Dill Measuring Network Connectivity for Bicycling and Walking , 2004 .

[48]  A. Thieken,et al.  Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction – Success or Warning Sign for Paris? , 2015 .

[49]  N. Shuto Tsunamis — Their Coastal Effects and Defense Works , 2015 .

[50]  Shunichi Koshimura,et al.  An Integrated Simulation of Tsunami Hazard and Human Evacuation in La Punta, Peru , 2013 .

[51]  Jeanne M. Jones,et al.  Pedestrian flow-path modeling to support tsunami evacuation and disaster relief planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest , 2016 .

[52]  Ilan Noy,et al.  NATURAL DISASTERS , 2011 .

[53]  Christine Wamsler,et al.  Mainstreaming risk reduction in urban planning and housing: a challenge for international aid organisations. , 2006, Disasters.

[54]  L. Comfort,et al.  Reframing disaster policy: the global evolution of vulnerable communities , 1999 .

[55]  S. Handy,et al.  Planning For Street Connectivity: Getting from Here to There , 2003 .

[56]  Alan Penn,et al.  Natural Movement: Or, Configuration and Attraction in Urban Pedestrian Movement , 1993 .

[57]  F. Benjamin Zhan,et al.  Agent-based modelling and simulation of urban evacuation: relative effectiveness of simultaneous and staged evacuation strategies , 2008, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[58]  Penny Allan,et al.  The Influence of Urban Morphology on the Resilience of Cities Following an Earthquake , 2013 .

[59]  Hitomi Murakami,et al.  Tsunami Vertical Evacuation Buildings – Lessons for International Preparedness Following the 2011 Great East Japan Tsunami , 2012 .

[60]  Jeanne M. Jones,et al.  Tsunami vertical-evacuation planning in the U.S. Pacific Northwest as a geospatial, multi-criteria decision problem , 2014 .

[61]  Mauricio González,et al.  Tsunami evacuation modelling as a tool for risk reduction: application to the coastal area of El Salvador , 2013 .

[62]  Veronica Cedillos,et al.  Tsunami risk reduction for densely populated Southeast Asian cities: analysis of vehicular and pedestrian evacuation for the city of Padang, Indonesia, and assessment of interventions , 2013, Natural Hazards.

[63]  Arikawa Taro Development of High Precision Tsunami Simulation Based on a Hierarchical Intelligent Simulation , 2015 .

[64]  Fumihiko Imamura,et al.  Recent Advances in Agent-Based Tsunami Evacuation Simulations: Case Studies in Indonesia, Thailand, Japan and Peru , 2015, Pure and Applied Geophysics.

[65]  PLANNING FOR POST-DISASTER RECONSTRUCTION , 2004 .

[66]  Hannes Taubenböck,et al.  "Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster , 2009 .

[67]  A. Danenberg Getting from here to there. , 1992, Dental economics - oral hygiene.

[68]  Standort Duisburg,et al.  A Cellular Automaton Model for Crowd Movement and Egress Simulation , 2003 .