Forecast of Tsunamis from the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka Source Region

This paper describes an investigation of the subfault distribution along the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka subduction zone for the implementation of a far-field tsunami forecast algorithm. Analyses of seismic data from 1900 to 2000 define the subduction zone, which in turn is divided into 222 subfaults based on the fault characteristics. For unit slip of the subfaults, a linear long-wave model generates a database of mareograms at water-level stations along the subduction zone and at warning points in the North Pacific. When a tsunami occurs, an inverse algorithm determines the slip distribution from near-source water-level records and predicts the waveforms at the warning points using the pre-computed mareograms. A jackknife resampling scheme uses combinations of input water-level records to provide a series of waveform predictions for the computation of the confidence-interval bounds. The inverse algorithm is applied to hindcast two major tsunamis generated from the Japan–Kuril–Kamchatka source and the computed tsunami heights show good agreement with recorded water-level data.

[1]  M. Ando.  Source mechanisms and tectonic significance of historical earthquakes along the nankai trough, Japan , 1975 .

[2]  K. Satake,et al.  Detailed coseismic slip distribution of the 1944 Tonankai Earthquake estimated from tsunami waveforms , 2001 .

[3]  Marie C. Eble,et al.  Deep-Ocean Bottom Pressure Measurements in the Northeast Pacific , 1991 .

[4]  Eddie N. Bernard,et al.  Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART): Brief Overview and Status Report , 1998 .

[5]  H. Kanamori.  Seismological evidence for a lithospheric normal faulting — the Sanriku earthquake of 1933 , 1971 .

[6]  K. Abe.  Tectonic implications of the large shioya-oki earthquakes of 1938 , 1977 .

[7]  Jean M. Johnson.  Heterogeneous Coupling Along Alaska-Aleutians as Inferred From Tsunami, Seismic, and Geodetic Inversions , 1998 .

[8]  K. Cheung,et al.  Tsunami height forecast from water-level data , 2001, MTS/IEEE Oceans 2001. An Ocean Odyssey. Conference Proceedings (IEEE Cat. No.01CH37295).

[9]  L. Ruff,et al.  The Sanriku-Oki, Japan, Earthquake of December 28, 1994 (Mw 7.7): Rupture of a different asperity from a previous earthquake , 1996 .

[10]  Harold O. Mofjeld,et al.  Short-Term Forecasts of Inundation during Teletsunamis in the Eastern North Pacific Ocean , 1997 .

[11]  Kenji Satake,et al.  Slip distribution of the 1952 Tokachi‐Oki earthquake (M 8.1) along the Kuril Trench deduced from tsunami waveform inversion , 2003 .

[12]  K. Satake,et al.  Asperity Distribution of the 1952 Great Kamchatka Earthquake and its Relation to Future Earthquake Potential in Kamchatka , 1999 .

[13]  B. Efron.  The jackknife, the bootstrap, and other resampling plans , 1987 .

[14]  Walter H. F. Smith,et al.  Global Sea Floor Topography from Satellite Altimetry and Ship Depth Soundings , 1997 .

[15]  Spectral analysis of tsunami records from stations in the Hawaiian Islands , 1966 .

[16]  Paul M. Whitmore,et al.  TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE PREDICTION DURING EVENTS: A TEST BASED ON PREVIOUS TSUNAMIS , 2003 .

[17]  M. Ando.  A fault model of the 1946 Nankaido earthquake derived from tsunami data , 1982 .

[18]  T. Sagiya,et al.  Coseismic slip resolution along a plate boundary megathrust: The Nankai Trough, southwest Japan , 1999 .

[19]  Eddie N. Bernard,et al.  The 1987–88 Alaskan Bight tsunamis: Deep ocean data and model comparisons , 1991 .

[20]  George D. Curtis,et al.  Inverse Algorithm for Tsunami Forecasts , 2003 .

[21]  Kinjiro Kajiura,et al.  45. Tsunami Source, Energy and the Directivity of Wave Radiation , 1970 .

[22]  S. Tinti,et al.  The October 4, 1994 Shikotan (Kurile Islands) Tsunamigenic Earthquake: An Open Problem on the Source Mechanism , 1999 .

[23]  Yuichiro Tanioka,et al.  Fault parameters of the 1896 Sanriku Tsunami Earthquake estimated from Tsunami Numerical Modeling , 1996 .

[24]  Larry J. Ruff,et al.  How good are our best models? Jackknifing, bootstrapping, and earthquake depth , 1989 .

[25]  Ryota Hino,et al.  Micro‐tsunami from a local interplate earthquake detected by cabled offshore tsunami observation in northeastern Japan , 2001 .

[26]  K. Abe.  Tsunami and mechanism of great earthquakes , 1973 .

[27]  Changbao Wu,et al.  Jackknife, Bootstrap and Other Resampling Methods in Regression Analysis , 1986 .

[28]  Kenji Satake,et al.  Inversion of tsunami waveforms for the estimation of a fault heterogeneity: Method and numerical experiments. , 1987 .

[29]  Kwok Fai Cheung,et al.  Well-Balanced Finite-Volume Model for Long-Wave Runup , 2006 .

[30]  V. Gusiakov.  Basic Pacific tsunami catalog and database, 47 BC-2000 AD: Results of the first stage of the project , 2001 .

[31]  Vasily Titov,et al.  Numerical Modeling of Tidal Wave Runup , 1998 .

[32]  D. E. Smylie,et al.  The displacement fields of inclined faults , 1971, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

[33]  Tom Parsons,et al.  Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone , 2002 .

[34]  H. Kanamori.  Tectonic implications of the 1944 Tonankai and the 1946 Nankaido earthquakes , 1972 .

[35]  H. Kanamori.  The energy release in great earthquakes , 1977 .

[36]  K. Satake,et al.  Coseismic slip distribution of the 1946 Nankai earthquake and aseismic slips caused by the earthquake , 2001 .

[37]  Zygmunt Kowalik,et al.  Numerical simulation of two‐dimensional tsunami runup , 1993 .

[38]  Ian Parsons,et al.  Surface deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half-space , 1986 .

[39]  K. Shimazaki.  Nemuro-Oki earthquake of June 17, 1973: A lithospheric rebound at the upper half of the interface , 1974 .

[40]  K. Shimazaki,et al.  Rupture process of the Miyagi-Oki, Japan, earthquake of June 12, 1978 , 1980 .

[41]  L. Ruff,et al.  Two 1993 Kamchatka earthquakes , 1995 .

[42]  H. Kanamori.  Focal mechanism of the Tokachi-Oki earthquake of may 16, 1968: Contortion of the lithosphere at a junction of two trenches , 1971 .

[43]  W. G. V. Dorn.  Some Tsunami Characteristics Deducible from Tide Records , 1984 .

[44]  Y. Tanioka.  Interpretation of the Slip Distributions Estimated Using Tsunami Waveforms for the 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankai Earthquakes , 2001 .

[45]  Yong-Sik Cho,et al.  Runup of solitary waves on a circular Island , 1995, Journal of Fluid Mechanics.

[46]  L. Ruff,et al.  The great Kurile Earthquake of October 4, 1994 tore the slab , 1995 .

[47]  K. Satake.  Inversion of tsunami waveforms for the estimation of heterogeneous fault motion of large submarine earthquakes: The 1968 Tokachi‐oki and 1983 Japan Sea earthquakes , 1989 .

[48]  Vasily Titov,et al.  Offshore forecasting of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in Hawaii , 1999 .

[49]  Thomas,et al.  PREDICTING TSUNAMI AMPLITUDES ALONG THE NORTH AMERICAN 147 COAST FROM TSUNAMIS GENERATED IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC OCEAN DURING TSUNAMI WARNINGS , 1999 .