Judgemental modelling as an aid to scenario planning and analysis 1 The co-authors dedicate the pape

The paper presents the results of an application of judgemental modelling to the development and analysis of scenarios in the pharmaceutical industry. It describes how the models were constructed and evaluated by a group of executives responsible for the scenario generation, and uses perceptual mapping techniques to represent the differing perspectives. The paper considers the effectiveness of different approaches to support group decision making and how judgemental modelling aided the analysis of the outcomes. The initial results suggest that the combination of the structured decision approach and the visual representational technique is a powerful managerial tool in such situations. Proposals for its future development and suggestions for further research are explored.

[1]  Pekka Korhonen,et al.  Multiple criteria decision support - A review , 1992 .

[2]  George P. Huber,et al.  Issues in the Design of Group Decision Support Systems , 1984, MIS Q..

[3]  R. Meredith Belbin,et al.  Team Roles at Work , 2022 .

[4]  Peter Naudé,et al.  Market Analysis via Judgemental Modelling: An Application in the UK Chemical Industry , 1993 .

[5]  Po L. Yu,et al.  Forming Winning Strategies , 1990 .

[6]  Geoff Lockett,et al.  Group decision making: Suppositions and practice , 1991 .

[7]  Stanley Zionts,et al.  Multiple criteria decision making : proceedings of the Ninth international conference : theory and applications in business, industry, and government , 1992 .

[8]  Peter Checkland,et al.  Soft Systems Methodology in Action , 1990 .

[9]  Valerie Belton,et al.  Decision support systems: Learning from visual interactive modelling , 1994, Decis. Support Syst..

[10]  Pete Naudé,et al.  Groups and negotiation in the production of a forecast , 1996, Proceedings of HICSS-29: 29th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[11]  James C. Wetherbe,et al.  The management of information systems , 1985 .

[12]  Geoff Lockett,et al.  Modeling Strategic Decision Making and Performance Measurements at ICI Pharmaceuticals , 1991 .

[13]  A. G. Lockett,et al.  Judgemental modelling based on geometric least square , 1988 .

[14]  D. J. White,et al.  Decision Theory , 2018, Behavioral Finance for Private Banking.

[15]  Tung Bui,et al.  Building DSS for negotiators: a three-step design process , 1992, Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences.

[16]  Gregory E. Kersten,et al.  Decision making and decision aiding: Defining the process, it representations, and support , 1994 .

[17]  R. Mason.  Challenging strategic planning assumptions , 1981 .

[18]  W. Edwards,et al.  Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research , 1986 .

[19]  D. V. Lindley,et al.  The Craft of Decision Modelling , 1994 .

[20]  Jay F. Nunamaker,et al.  Computer-Aided Deliberation: Model Management and Group Decision Support: Special Focus Article , 1988, Oper. Res..

[21]  Gerardine DeSanctis,et al.  A foundation for the study of group decision support systems , 1987 .

[22]  Gregory E. Kersten,et al.  Supporting problem representations in decisions with strategic interactions , 1990 .

[23]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[24]  Jay F. Nunamaker,et al.  Information Technology to Support Electronic Meetings , 1988, MIS Q..