Agent-based Modeling of Inter-provincial Migration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: A Data Analytics Approach

The Mekong Delta (MKD) region in Vietnam has experienced large-scale inter-provincial migration flows. This study employs agent-based modeling to explore migration dynamics across the provinces and cities in the MKD. An agent-based model, which incorporates the Theory of Planned Behaviour into the decision-making process to effectively break down migration intention into related components, is developed to simulate how an individual makes migration decisions considering different economic, social, and environmental circumstances. Outputs of the agent-based model are calibrated via real province-level data of in-, out-, and net-migration flows in the MKD region with the use of a data analytics approach, in an attempt to validate the results produced.

[1]  H. Huy.  Rural to Urban Migration as a Household Decision: Experimental Evidences from the Mekong Delta, Vietnam , 2009 .

[2]  M. Kirley,et al.  Random mobility and the evolution of cooperation in spatial N-player iterated Prisoner's Dilemma games , 2012 .

[3]  C. Nguyen,et al.  Migration in Vietnam: New Evidence from Recent Surveys , 2015 .

[4]  Frans Willekens,et al.  Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration , 2017, Population studies.

[5]  I. Ajzen.  The theory of planned behavior , 1991 .

[6]  Sean Luke,et al.  MASON: A Multiagent Simulation Environment , 2005, Simul..

[7]  D. Kniveton,et al.  Agent Based Modelling of Migration Decision-Making , 2010 .

[8]  J. Schade,et al.  Assessing the Evidence: Migration, Environment and Climate Change in Kenya , 2016 .

[9]  Brett W. Parris,et al.  Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model , 2012, Environment and Development Economics.

[10]  F. Willekens.  The Decision to Emigrate: A Simulation Model Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour , 2017 .

[11]  D. Kniveton,et al.  Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso , 2011 .

[12]  Raymond Chiong,et al.  A Multi-agent Based Migration Model for Evolving Cooperation in the Spatial N-Player Snowdrift Game , 2013, PRIMA.

[13]  I. Coxhead,et al.  Interprovincial Migration and Inequality During Vietnam's Transition , 2007 .

[14]  Dominic Kniveton,et al.  Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa , 2012 .

[15]  Sean Luke,et al.  GeoMason: Geospatial Support for MASON , 2010 .

[16]  Christopher Smith,et al.  Modelling migration futures: development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model – Tanzania , 2014 .