Sensitivity analysis of blast loading parameters and their trends as uncertainty increases

Abstract A sensitivity analysis of blast loading parameters is performed to determine which of the parameters’ uncertainties have the greatest effect on the maximum deflection of a clamped aluminum plate subjected to a blast load. A numerical simulation using the Monte Carlo method is used to obtain the ensemble averages of the probabilistic runs, with random variables given uniform distributions. The first loading model has an instantaneous rise with an exponential decay, represented by the modified Friedlander equation. The second loading model has a linear rise with an exponential decay. Both of these models are simulated with three different scaled blast loads, giving a total of six different cases. In addition, the deflection trends due to increases in loading uncertainties are quantified. Probability density functions for the maximum deflections are estimated. The probabilistic results and trends are also explained using deterministic methods. It is concluded that response is most sensitive to loading duration time.

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