Based on the probabilistic fracture mechanics approach, durability test on the fine details of wagon side frame is simulated, the structural damage degree is evaluated from the four aspects of the survival probability, the stress amplitude, the crack formation time and economic repair limit size according to general EIFS distribution, and its economic life is predicted by combining with the stress spectrum measured in practice. The result shows that the EIFS follows the Weibull distribution and passes the K-S test, the structural damage degree can be quantitatively measured on the basis of the probabilistic model of crack exceedance, the economic life predicted tends to increase with the increase of crack exceedance probability, the rationality and validity of the analysis method is proved.
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