Emerging Market Dynamics in the Mobile Services Industry

Legal Notices The information in this document is subject to change without notice. The Members of the MobiCom Consortium make no warranty of any kind with regard to this document, including, but not limited to, the implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. The Members of the MobiCom Consortium shall not be held liable for errors contained herein or direct, indirect, special, incidental or consequential damages in connection with the furnishing, performance, or use of this material. Executive Summary This paper provides essential insight for all those who deal with the uncertainties of the mobile business environment and whose survival depends on wise decisions that are likely to capitalise on the opportunities lying ahead while mitigating against the imminent risks. Our task here is to map the implications of the four MobiCom scenarios for market competition and business strategy. Towards this aim, we have investigated market dynamics in the mobile market. Our analysis is based on the scenario value chain models. The scenario value chain models consider the broader market dynamics by taking into consideration all the actors in the mobile services value chain. We have made an analysis of four scenarios for the future mobile market. The analysis is made with the purpose of identifying the dynamics of the four alternative mobile futures. Our purpose here is not to draw potential business models or specific business plans, although the reader can draw various useful conclusions in this direction as well. The viewpoints addressed for each scenario are regulation, Technology and Market structure. The last part of this white paper includes opportunities, risks a nd strategic recommendations for the key Finally, the paper provides an illustration of how this scenario analysis can be used for strategic decision-making in this industry, under different assumptions about the future.