Automated construction of clear-sky dictionary from all-sky imager data

Abstract All-sky imagers (ASIs) have substantial promise as scalable sensors for short-term solar irradiance forecasting. Many of the current computational techniques that use ASIs for this purpose rely on collections of clear-sky images indexed by time of day, solar angle, or both, called clear-sky dictionaries (CSDs). These CSDs act as baselines against which images can be compared to locate and classify clouds within the image frame. CSDs are often compiled by hand, where individuals visually inspect collections of images one at a time to find clear-sky images. This process is not scalable, and it is prone to error. This paper proposes an automated, nonparametric alternative that uses the principles of digital image processing to find clear-sky images within a set of images taken over several days. We use ground-truth measurements of the clearness index to assess the performance of our method, and we show that the images it selects accurately correspond to clear-sky images. We also compare our proposal, which is nonparametric, with a state-of-the-art parametric method. The numerical results indicate that the performance of the method proposed here is superior.

[1]  J. Kleissl,et al.  Intra-hour forecasting with a total sky imager at the UC San Diego solar energy testbed , 2011 .

[2]  Paul Bourke,et al.  Real-time spectral radiance estimation of hemispherical clear skies with machine learned regression models , 2020 .

[3]  Clifford W. Hansen,et al.  Pvlib Python: a Python Package for Modeling Solar Energy Systems , 2018, J. Open Source Softw..

[4]  Nicholas A. Engerer,et al.  Worldwide performance assessment of 75 global clear-sky irradiance models using Principal Component Analysis , 2019, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[5]  Enio Bueno Pereira,et al.  A Simple Method for the Assessment of the Cloud Cover State in High-Latitude Regions by a Ground-Based Digital Camera , 2006 .

[6]  Jinsong Zhang,et al.  Deep Photovoltaic Nowcasting , 2018, Solar Energy.

[7]  Jamie M. Bright,et al.  Worldwide performance assessment of 95 direct and diffuse clear-sky irradiance models using principal component analysis , 2021 .

[8]  T. Hamill,et al.  A short-term cloud forecast scheme using cross correlations , 1993 .

[9]  Carlos F.M. Coimbra,et al.  Hybrid intra-hour DNI forecasts with sky image processing enhanced by stochastic learning , 2013 .

[10]  R. Inman,et al.  Impact of local broadband turbidity estimation on forecasting of clear sky direct normal irradiance , 2015 .

[11]  Robert Pitz-Paal,et al.  Determination of the optimal camera distance for cloud height measurements with two all-sky imagers , 2019, Solar Energy.

[12]  Jun Yang,et al.  A Hybrid Thresholding Algorithm for Cloud Detection on Ground-Based Color Images , 2011 .

[13]  C. Coimbra,et al.  Intra-hour DNI forecasting based on cloud tracking image analysis , 2013 .

[14]  R. Pitz-Paal,et al.  Determination of cloud transmittance for all sky imager based solar nowcasting , 2019, Solar Energy.

[15]  A. Heinle,et al.  Automatic cloud classification of whole sky images , 2010 .

[16]  C. W. Chow,et al.  A method for cloud detection and opacity classification based on ground based sky imagery , 2012 .

[17]  Jan Kleissl,et al.  Cloud tomography applied to sky images: A virtual testbed , 2018, Solar Energy.

[18]  Robert Pitz-Paal,et al.  Nowcasting of DNI Maps for the Solar Field Based on Voxel Carving and Individual 3D Cloud Objects from All Sky Images , 2018 .

[19]  Isao Murata,et al.  Estimation of spectral distribution of sky radiance using a commercial digital camera. , 2016, Applied optics.

[20]  Ning Zhang,et al.  Data-Driven Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting With High Penetration of Behind-the-Meter PV , 2018, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[21]  Josep Calbó,et al.  Feature Extraction from Whole-Sky Ground-Based Images for Cloud-Type Recognition , 2008 .

[22]  Mario Paolone,et al.  Local estimation of the global horizontal irradiance using an all-sky camera , 2018, Solar Energy.

[23]  Robert Pitz-Paal,et al.  Real-Time Uncertainty Specification of All Sky Imager Derived Irradiance Nowcasts , 2019, Remote. Sens..

[24]  Robert Pitz-Paal,et al.  Validation of an all‐sky imager–based nowcasting system for industrial PV plants , 2018 .

[25]  Jan Kleissl,et al.  Detecting clear sky images , 2019, Solar Energy.

[26]  Josep Calbó,et al.  Retrieving Cloud Characteristics from Ground-Based Daytime Color All-Sky Images , 2006 .

[27]  H. Pedro,et al.  Assessment of forecasting techniques for solar power production with no exogenous inputs , 2012 .

[28]  E. Pereira,et al.  The Use of Euclidean Geometric Distance on RGB Color Space for the Classification of Sky and Cloud Patterns , 2010 .

[29]  Christian A. Gueymard,et al.  A reevaluation of the solar constant based on a 42-year total solar irradiance time series and a reconciliation of spaceborne observations , 2018, Solar Energy.

[30]  Stefan Winkler,et al.  Rough-Set-Based Color Channel Selection , 2016, IEEE Geoscience and Remote Sensing Letters.

[31]  N. Otsu A threshold selection method from gray level histograms , 1979 .

[32]  J. Kleissl,et al.  Cloud base height estimates from sky imagery and a network of pyranometers , 2019, Solar Energy.

[33]  Rolf Philipona,et al.  The clear‐sky index to separate clear‐sky from cloudy‐sky situations in climate research , 2000 .

[34]  R. Inman,et al.  Solar forecasting methods for renewable energy integration , 2013 .

[35]  Carlos F.M. Coimbra,et al.  History and trends in solar irradiance and PV power forecasting: A preliminary assessment and review using text mining , 2018, Solar Energy.