Productivity estimates of the strategic airlift system by the use of simulation

Although the strategic airlift system is under continuous analysis, C‐5A problems provided impetus to analyze the airlift system productivity function by using a large‐scale simulation model. Development of the simulation model (Simulation of Airlift Resources ‐ SOAR) was initiated by the Office of Secretary of Defense (Systems Analysis) in 1966. SOAR had barely become operational in time for the study in November 1968. Since limited verification and validation tests had been performed on the simulation model, the design of experiments was of critical importance. The experimental design had to be flexible enough to salvage the maximum amount of information possible upon the discovery of either a verification or validation error. In addition, the experimental design was required to accommodate the estimation of a large number of possibly changing independent variables. The experimental design developed for the analysis was full factorial design sets for a finite number of factors. Initial analysis began with aggregated sets of factors at two levels, and information gained from experiment execution was used to parse the sets. The process was sequential and parsing continued until the major explanatory independent variables were identified or enough information was obtained to eliminate the factor from further direct analysis. This design permitted the overlapping of simulation runs to fill out the factorial design sets. In addition to estimating the airlift productivity function, several other findings are reported which tended to disprove previous assumptions about the nature of the strategic airlift system.