CONSISTENT EXPECTATIONS EQUILIBRIA AND COMPLEX DYNAMICS IN RENEWABLE RESOURCE MARKETS

Price fluctuations under adaptive learning in renewable resource markets such as fisheries are examined. Optimal fishery management with logistic fish population growth implies a backward-bending, discounted supply curve for bioeconomic equilibrium sustained yield. Higher discount rates bend supply backward more to generate multiple steady-state rational expectations equilibria. Under bounded rationality, adaptive learning of a linear forecasting rule generates steady-state, two-cycle as well as chaotic consistent expectations equilibria, which are self-fulfilling in sample average and autocorrelations. The possibility of “learning to believe in chaos” is robust and even enhanced by dynamic noise.

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