Spatial and temporal dynamics of land use pattern in District Swat, Hindu Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan

Abstract District Swat is a part of the high altitude Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region of Pakistan comprising a diverse set of biophysical, ecological and socio-economic characteristics. Analysis of land cover data of this region is particularly important because of disparate accounts on the state of forest resources of Pakistan in general and Swat in particular. Mainly official Pakistani sources frequently claim that Pakistan’s forests have been progressively increasing as a result of afforestation efforts and increasing environmental awareness. On the other hand, a number of studies and international statistics have reported significant deforestation in Pakistan. To resolve this uncertainty this paper documents the land use dynamics from three ecological zones of district Swat over four decades using aerial photographs and remote sensing data for the years 1968, 1990 and 2007. Analysis of land use and cover change in Swat, over this time period, shows drastic changes in the landscape. In Kalam; the forest zone of the district, forest area is decreased by 30.5%; with 11.4% of the deforestation caused by agricultural expansion. Simultaneously, a marked reduction in the agricultural area was observed with 17.3% of the agricultural area converted to rangeland. In Malamjaba, the agro-forest zone of the district, agricultural land expanded by 77.6% between 1968 and 1990 but then shrunk by 4.1% between 1990 and 2007. Forest cover in this zone decreased 49.7% over the last 40 years. In the Barikot region (agro-scrub forest zone), forest cover decreased from covering 32.7% of the total area of the zone in 1968 to 9.5% in 2007, whereas the built up areas increased by 161.4% over the four decades; and agricultural land expanded by 129.9% consuming 12.7% and 18.96% of forest area between 1968 and 1990, and between 1990 and 2007, respectively. Annual deforestation rates observed were 1.86% (scrub forest zone), 1.28% (agro-forest zone) and 0.80% (pine forest zone) in the respective areas of district Swat. Expansion of agriculture has mainly been achieved at the expense of forested areas, with only negligible accounts of afforestation from 1968 to 2007. We conclude that despite frequent claims of forest increase in Swat, the valuable coniferous forest has significantly decreased, frequently leading to land degradation. The current trend is therefore alarming and calls for increased policy action to increase protection of the remaining forest resources which otherwise might follow a similar fate.