Understanding the dynamics of inter-provincial migration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: an agent-based modeling study

Recent large-scale migration flows from rural areas of the Mekong Delta (MKD) to larger cities in the South-East (SE) region of Vietnam have created the largest migration corridor in the country. This migration trend has further contributed to greater rural–urban disparities and widened the development gap between regions. In this study, our aim is to understand the migration dynamics and determine the most critical factors affecting the behavior of migrants in the MKD region. We present an agent-based model and incorporate the Theory of Planned Behavior to effectively break down migration intention into related components and contributing factors. A genetic algorithm is used for automated calibration and sensitivity analysis of model parameters, in order to validate our agent-based model. We further explore the migration behavior of people in certain demographic groups and delineate migration flows across cities and provinces from the MKD to the SE region.

[1]  M. Oppenheimer,et al.  An Agent-Based Model of Climate-Induced Agricultural Labor Migration , 2013 .

[2]  D. Kniveton,et al.  Agent Based Modelling of Migration Decision-Making , 2010 .

[3]  D. Kniveton,et al.  Agent-based model simulations of future changes in migration flows for Burkina Faso , 2011 .

[4]  Joshua M. Epstein,et al.  Remarks on the Foundations of Agent-Based Generative Social Science , 2012 .

[5]  Raymond Chiong,et al.  Agent-based Modeling of Migration Dynamics in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: Automated Calibration Using a Genetic Algorithm , 2019, 2019 IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC).

[6]  Forrest Stonedahl,et al.  Finding Forms of Flocking: Evolutionary Search in ABM Parameter-Spaces , 2010, MABS.

[7]  Oscar Cordón,et al.  Multimodal optimization: An effective framework for model calibration , 2017, Inf. Sci..

[8]  Brett W. Parris,et al.  Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model , 2012, Environment and Development Economics.

[9]  Arend Ligtenberg,et al.  Which Sensitivity Analysis Method Should I Use for My Agent-Based Model? , 2016, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[10]  Tran Minh Tam,et al.  Determinants and Impacts of Migration in Vietnam , 2008 .

[11]  Veronique Marx,et al.  Internal migration : opportunities and challenges for socio-economic development in Viet Nam , 2010 .

[12]  B. Bonfoh,et al.  An analysis of interprovincial migration in Vietnam from 1989 to 2009 , 2012, Global health action.

[13]  Frans Willekens,et al.  Multistate modelling extended by behavioural rules: An application to migration , 2017, Population studies.

[14]  John H. Miller,et al.  Active Nonlinear Tests (Ants) of Complex Simulation Models , 1998 .

[15]  J. Schade,et al.  Assessing the Evidence: Migration, Environment and Climate Change in Kenya , 2016 .

[16]  I. Coxhead,et al.  Interprovincial Migration and Inequality During Vietnam's Transition , 2007 .

[17]  Rogelio Oliva,et al.  Model calibration as a testing strategy for system dynamics models , 2003, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[18]  F. Willekens.  The Decision to Emigrate: A Simulation Model Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour , 2017 .

[19]  Michael J. North,et al.  Tutorial on agent-based modelling and simulation , 2005, Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference, 2005..

[20]  I. Ajzen,et al.  Predicting and Changing Behavior: The Reasoned Action Approach , 2009 .

[21]  Nina Schwarz,et al.  Agent-based modeling of environment-migration linkages : A review , 2018 .

[22]  Dominic Kniveton,et al.  Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa , 2012 .

[23]  I. Ajzen.  The theory of planned behavior , 1991 .

[24]  Guillaume Hutzler,et al.  Automatic Tuning of Agent-Based Models Using Genetic Algorithms , 2005, MABS.

[25]  Oscar Cordón,et al.  A multicriteria integral framework for agent-based model calibration using evolutionary multiobjective optimization and network-based visualization , 2019, Decis. Support Syst..

[26]  R. Lucas,et al.  Internal migration in developing countries , 1993 .

[27]  C. Nguyen,et al.  Migration in Vietnam: New Evidence from Recent Surveys , 2015 .

[28]  Forrest Stonedahl,et al.  The Complexities of Agent-Based Modeling Output Analysis , 2015, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[29]  Kalyanmoy Deb,et al.  Simulated Binary Crossover for Continuous Search Space , 1995, Complex Syst..

[30]  Forrest Stonedahl,et al.  Evolutionary Robustness Checking in the Artificial Anasazi Model , 2010, AAAI Fall Symposium: Complex Adaptive Systems.

[31]  Sean Luke,et al.  MASON: A Multiagent Simulation Environment , 2005, Simul..

[32]  David E. Goldberg,et al.  Genetic algorithms and Machine Learning , 1988, Machine Learning.

[33]  Eric Bonabeau,et al.  Agent-based modeling: Methods and techniques for simulating human systems , 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[34]  Christopher Smith,et al.  Modelling migration futures: development and testing of the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model – Tanzania , 2014 .

[35]  Raymond Chiong,et al.  Agent-based Modeling of Inter-provincial Migration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: A Data Analytics Approach , 2018, 2018 IEEE Conference on Big Data and Analytics (ICBDA).

[36]  El-Ghazali Talbi,et al.  Metaheuristics - From Design to Implementation , 2009 .

[37]  Scott E. Page,et al.  Agent-Based Models , 2014, Encyclopedia of GIS.

[38]  Sean Luke,et al.  GeoMason: Geospatial Support for MASON , 2010 .

[39]  Tatiana Filatova,et al.  One Theory - Many Formalizations: Testing Different Code Implementations of the Theory of Planned Behaviour in Energy Agent-Based Models , 2018, J. Artif. Soc. Soc. Simul..

[40]  Francesco C. Billari,et al.  Agent based computational demography: using simulation to improve our understanding of demographic behaviour , 2003 .