Decision support for selecting a shortlist of electricity-saving options: a modified SMAA approach

This paper describes an application providing decision support for generating a shortlist of promising electricity-saving options for households in South Africa. The decision problem is characterised by constraints on time and other resources, and by substantial uncertainty around the preferences for energy-related attributes and the performance of alternatives on those attributes. We use a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis model to incorporate preferential uncertainties, and adapt this for use with quantiles and other "simplified" formats for representing uncertain attribute evaluations.

[1]  Kaisa Miettinen,et al.  Ordinal criteria in stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) , 2003, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[2]  Ian N. Durbach,et al.  Modelling household responses to energy efficiency interventions via system dynamics and survey data , 2010 .

[3]  A. Tversky,et al.  Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk — Source link , 2007 .

[4]  Per Gyberg,et al.  Influencing households’ energy behaviour—how is this done and on what premises? , 2009 .

[5]  Theodor J. Stewart,et al.  Multiple criteria decision analysis - an integrated approach , 2001 .

[6]  Heracles Polatidis,et al.  Renewable energy projects: structuring a multi-criteria group decision-making framework , 2003 .

[7]  Risto Lahdelma,et al.  SMAA - Stochastic multiobjective acceptability analysis , 1998, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[8]  A. O'Hagan,et al.  Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions , 2005 .

[9]  Kristen Averyt,et al.  Climate change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Group I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Summary for Policymakers. , 2007 .

[10]  Ian N. Durbach,et al.  A simulation-based test of stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis using achievement functions , 2006, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[11]  Rik Donckels,et al.  REGIONAL MULTIOBJECTIVE PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY: A STOCHASTIC GOAL PROGRAMMING FORMULATION* , 1977 .

[12]  C. Kirkwood.  Estimating the Impact of Uncertainty on a Deterministic Multiattribute Evaluation , 1992 .

[13]  Donald R. Cooper,et al.  Business Research Methods , 1980 .

[14]  Lutz E. Schlange.  Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation , 1997 .

[15]  Philip Kotler,et al.  Strategic marketing for nonprofit organizations , 1985 .

[16]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs , 1976 .

[17]  Ian N. Durbach,et al.  Modeling uncertainty in multi-criteria decision analysis , 2012, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[18]  D. Keefer,et al.  Three-Point Approximations for Continuous Random Variables , 1983 .

[19]  Roger M. Cooke,et al.  Choice of a long-term strategy for the national electricity supply via scenario analysis and multi-criteria analysis , 1990 .

[20]  P. Salminen,et al.  Prospect theory and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) , 2009 .

[21]  C. Vlek,et al.  A review of intervention studies aimed at household energy conservation , 2005 .

[22]  Vaclav Smil,et al.  Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties , 2005 .

[23]  Paul Goodwin,et al.  Decision Analysis for Management Judgment , 1998 .

[24]  Robert F. Bordley,et al.  Multiattribute Preference Analysis with Performance Targets , 2004, Oper. Res..

[25]  Tommi Tervonen,et al.  Implementing stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis , 2007, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[26]  Gilberto Montibeller,et al.  Combining scenario planning and multi-criteria decision analysis in practice , 2006 .

[27]  Theodor J. Stewart.  Measurements of risk in fisheries management , 2014 .

[28]  Kaisa Miettinen,et al.  Determining the implementation order of a general plan by using a multicriteria method , 1998 .

[29]  Ron Janssen,et al.  On the use of multi‐criteria analysis in environmental impact assessment in The Netherlands , 2001 .

[30]  D. Acharya,et al.  A Chance-Constrained Goal Programming Model for Capital Budgeting , 1982 .

[31]  Andrew J. Higgins,et al.  A comparison of multiple criteria analysis techniques for water resource management , 2008, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[32]  C. B. E. Costa.  A multicriteria decision aid methodology to deal with conflicting situations on the weights , 1986 .

[33]  Ching-Lai Hwang,et al.  Fuzzy Multiple Attribute Decision Making - Methods and Applications , 1992, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems.

[34]  Theodor J. Stewart,et al.  Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis , 2001 .

[35]  Kaisa Miettinen,et al.  Reference point approach for multiple decision makers , 2005, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[36]  Enrique Ballestero,et al.  Stochastic goal programming: A mean-variance approach , 2001, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[37]  Risto Lahdelma,et al.  SMAA-2: Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis for Group Decision Making , 2001, Oper. Res..

[38]  R. L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.