Trading via image classification

The art of systematic financial trading evolved with an array of approaches, ranging from simple strategies to complex algorithms all relying, primary, on aspects of time-series analysis. Recently, after visiting the trading floor of a leading financial institution, we noticed that traders always execute their trade orders while observing images of financial time-series on their screens. In this work, we built upon the success in image recognition and examine the value in transforming the traditional time-series analysis to that of image classification. We create a large sample of financial time-series images encoded as candlestick (Box and Whisker) charts and label the samples following three algebraically-defined binary trade strategies. Using the images, we train over a dozen machine-learning classification models and find that the algorithms are very efficient in recovering the complicated, multiscale label-generating rules when the data is represented visually. We suggest that the transformation of continuous numeric time-series classification problem to a vision problem is useful for recovering signals typical of technical analysis.

[1]  Xiaogang Wang,et al.  Residual Attention Network for Image Classification , 2017, 2017 IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR).

[2]  Nima Hatami,et al.  Classification of time-series images using deep convolutional neural networks , 2017, International Conference on Machine Vision.

[3]  Tim Oates,et al.  Imaging Time-Series to Improve Classification and Imputation , 2015, IJCAI.

[4]  Tim Oates,et al.  Encoding Time Series as Images for Visual Inspection and Classification Using Tiled Convolutional Neural Networks , 2014 .

[5]  J. Murphy Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets , 1999 .

[6]  Quoc V. Le,et al.  SpecAugment: A Simple Data Augmentation Method for Automatic Speech Recognition , 2019, INTERSPEECH.

[7]  Chun-Chieh Wang,et al.  Encoding Candlesticks as Images for Patterns Classification Using Convolutional Neural Networks , 2019, ArXiv.

[8]  W. Briggs Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences , 2007 .

[9]  Charu C. Aggarwal,et al.  Data Mining: The Textbook , 2015 .

[10]  Rob Fergus,et al.  Visualizing and Understanding Convolutional Networks , 2013, ECCV.

[11]  Eamonn J. Keogh,et al.  The great time series classification bake off: a review and experimental evaluation of recent algorithmic advances , 2016, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery.

[12]  George Athanasopoulos,et al.  Forecasting: principles and practice , 2013 .

[13]  Vinícius M. A. de Souza,et al.  Time Series Classification Using Compression Distance of Recurrence Plots , 2013, 2013 IEEE 13th International Conference on Data Mining.

[14]  Gregory R. Koch,et al.  Siamese Neural Networks for One-Shot Image Recognition , 2015 .

[15]  Robert W. Colby,et al.  The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators , 1988 .

[16]  J. Murphy Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets: A Comprehensive Guide to Trading Methods and Applications , 1986 .

[17]  Ruey S. Tsay,et al.  Analysis of Financial Time Series , 2005 .

[18]  Marcos M. López de Prado,et al.  Advances in Financial Machine Learning: Numerai's Tournament (seminar slides) , 2018, SSRN Electronic Journal.

[19]  Dumitru Erhan,et al.  Going deeper with convolutions , 2014, 2015 IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR).

[20]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  Deep Learning , 2015, Nature.

[21]  Vinícius M. A. de Souza,et al.  Extracting Texture Features for Time Series Classification , 2014, 2014 22nd International Conference on Pattern Recognition.

[22]  Radford M. Neal Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning , 2007, Technometrics.

[23]  Geoffrey E. Hinton,et al.  ImageNet classification with deep convolutional neural networks , 2012, Commun. ACM.

[24]  Manuela Veloso,et al.  The Effect of Visual Design in Image Classification , 2019, ArXiv.