Solar activity forecast for

In this paper, we predict the next cycle's activity and improve the timing of solar cycle predictions. Dynamo- based solar activity prediction techniques rely upon two properties inherent in the solar cycle: that solar magnetism oscillates between poloidal and toroidal components; and that there is a degree of "magnetic persistence" in dynamos, which in the case of the Sun, results in the dependence of many magnetic related quantities (activity related quantities) upon the amount of magnetism embedded below the Sun's surface. Using the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index as a measure of magnetic persistence, we predict that solar cycle # 23 will reach a mean smoothed F10.7 peak of 182 + 30 solar flux units (sfu) and a mean sunspot number Rz of 138 + 30. This is particularly intriguing because the "folklore" is that odd cycles are larger than the preceding even cycle. Additionally, by tracking the equatorward march of solar activity, the timing of the cycle can be better estimated. From this, we estimate that the next solar maximum will occur near May, 2000 +9 months. From this behavior, we also suggest that the sum of appropriately weighed poloidal and toroidal components persist throughout the cycle, and to a lesser extent, from cycle to cycle. This allows us to forecast future maxima without having to wait until the previous minimum is reached, and to some extent, even from an earlier cycle. A proceedings on Solar Activity Predictions (Hruska, et al., 1992) provides new work in this area. We briefly review some of the history: Geomagnetic precursor methods started with the Russian astrophysicist Ohl (1966, 1979) and the British astrophysicists Brown and Williams (1969). These scientists noticed that fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field (geomagnetic activity) could be used to predict solar activity.