Dealing with Uncertainties? Combining System Dynamics with Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis or with Exploratory Modelling

System Dynamics is often used to explore issues that are characterised by uncertainties. This paper discusses first of all dierent types of uncertainties that system dynamicists need to deal with and the tools they already use to deal with these uncertainties. From this discussion it is concluded that stand-alone System Dynamics is often not sucient to deal with uncertainties. Then, two venues for improving the capacity of System Dynamics to deal with uncertainties are discussed, in both cases, by matching System Dynamics with other method(ologie)s: first with Multi-Attribute Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, and finally with Exploratory Modelling.

[1]  M.B.A. van Asselt,et al.  Perspectives on Uncertainty and Risk: The PRIMA Approach to Decision Support , 2000 .

[2]  W. Sanderson.  Predictability, complexity, and catastrophe in a collapsible model of population, development, and environmental interactions. , 1995, Mathematical population studies.

[3]  George P. Richardson.  Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling , 1981 .

[4]  E F Wolstenholme,et al.  Qualitative vs quantitative modelling: the evolving balance , 1999, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[5]  Pål I. Davidsen,et al.  Fuzzy system dynamics: An approach to vague and qualitative variables in simulation , 1994 .

[6]  Johan Springael,et al.  Simulation with system dynamics and fuzzy reasoning of a tax policy to reduce CO2 emissions in the residential sector , 2008, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[7]  Matthias Ehrgott,et al.  Multiple criteria decision analysis: state of the art surveys , 2005 .

[8]  Jørgen Randers,et al.  Elements of the System Dynamics Method , 1997 .

[9]  John D. Sterman,et al.  A Skeptic’s Guide to Computer Models , 1997 .

[10]  Geoff Coyle.  The practice of system dynamics: milestones, lessons and ideas from 30 years experience , 1998 .

[11]  Erik Pruyt,et al.  System Dynamics and Decision-Making in the Context of Dynamically Complex Multi-Dimensional Societal Issues , 2006 .

[12]  Gerald O Barney,et al.  Managing a nation: the microcomputer software catalog , 1991 .

[13]  Graham Winch,et al.  Perspectives on rationality in system dynamics—a workshop report and open research questions , 2004 .

[14]  R. L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-Offs , 1977, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[15]  Vincent Marchau,et al.  Dealing With Uncertainty in Policy Analysis and Policymaking , 2003 .

[16]  Gustav Feichtinger,et al.  Slow-fast dynamics in Wonderland , 1996 .

[17]  Philippe Vincke,et al.  Multicriteria Decision-aid , 1993 .

[18]  Erik Pruyt,et al.  What is System Dynamics? A Paradigmatic Inquiry , 2006 .

[19]  Steve Bankes,et al.  Exploratory Modeling for Policy Analysis , 1993, Oper. Res..

[20]  David C. Lane,et al.  Diagramming conventions in system dynamics , 2000, J. Oper. Res. Soc..

[21]  Theodor J. Stewart,et al.  Multiple criteria decision analysis - an integrated approach , 2001 .

[22]  Ralph L. Keeney,et al.  Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value tradeoffs , 1976 .

[23]  Durward K. Sobek,et al.  Modeling Real Options to Switch Among Alternatives in Product Development , 2003 .

[24]  M. Schlesinger,et al.  Robust Strategies for Abating Climate Change , 2000 .

[25]  William J. Dalton,et al.  Aiming for restructuring success at London Underground , 2001 .

[26]  David G. Groves,et al.  A General, Analytic Method for Generating Robust Strategies and Narrative Scenarios , 2006, Manag. Sci..

[27]  D. Finegold.  Book and Resource Reviews , 2005 .

[28]  Rogelio Oliva,et al.  The greater whole: Towards a synthesis of system dynamics and soft systems methodology , 1998, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[29]  Conrad Nuthmann,et al.  Using human judgment in system dynamics models of social systems , 1994 .

[30]  Chris J. L. Yewlett,et al.  The Electronic Oracle: Computer Models and Social Decisions , 1986 .

[31]  Steffen Bayer,et al.  Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modeling for a complex world , 2004 .

[32]  Datu Buyung Agusdinata,et al.  System-of-Systems Perspective and Exploratory Modeling to Support the Design of Adaptive Policy for Reducing Carbon Emission , 2007, 2007 IEEE International Conference on System of Systems Engineering.