A Good Explanation of an Event Is Not Necessarily Corroborated by the Event

It is shown by means of a simple example that a good explanation of an event is not necessarily corroborated by the occurrence of that event. It is also shown that this contention follows symbolically if an explanation having higher "explicativity" than another is regarded as better.

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[2]  I. J. Good,et al.  Explicativity: a mathematical theory of explanation with statistical applications , 1981, Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. A. Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[3]  I. Good.  Corroboration, Explanation, Evolving Probability, Simplicity and a Sharpened Razor , 1968, The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science.