The sensitivity of electric power infrastructure resilience to the spatial distribution of disaster impacts

Credibly assessing the resilience of energy infrastructure in the face of natural disasters is a salient concern facing researchers, government officials, and community members. Here, we explore the influence of the spatial distribution of disruptions due to hurricanes and other natural hazards on the resilience of power distribution systems. We find that incorporating information about the spatial distribution of disaster impacts has significant implications for estimating infrastructure resilience. Specifically, the uncertainty associated with estimated infrastructure resilience metrics to spatially distributed disaster-induced disruptions is much higher than determined by previous methods. We present a case study of an electric power distribution grid impacted by a major landfalling hurricane. We show that improved characterizations of disaster disruption drastically change the way in which the grid recovers, including changes in emergent system properties such as antifragility. Our work demonstrates that previous methods for estimating critical infrastructure resilience may be overstating the confidence associated with estimated network recoveries due to the lack of consideration of the spatial structure of disruptions.

[1]  Seth D Guikema,et al.  Comparison and Validation of Statistical Methods for Predicting Power Outage Durations in the Event of Hurricanes , 2011, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[2]  N. Taleb.  Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder , 2012 .

[3]  R Core Team,et al.  R: A language and environment for statistical computing. , 2014 .

[4]  Seth D. Guikema,et al.  Estimating cellular network performance during hurricanes , 2010, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[5]  Makarand Hastak,et al.  A multi-hazard approach to assess severe weather-induced major power outage risks in the U.S , 2018, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[6]  Zhu Han,et al.  Proactive Recovery of Electric Power Assets for Resiliency Enhancement , 2015, IEEE Access.

[7]  Harry Eugene Stanley,et al.  Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks , 2009, Nature.

[8]  Min Ouyang,et al.  Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[9]  Min Ouyang,et al.  A three-stage resilience analysis framework for urban infrastructure systems , 2012 .

[10]  Ian Dobson.  Electricity grid: When the lights go out , 2016 .

[11]  Pierluigi Mancarella,et al.  Power System Resilience to Extreme Weather: Fragility Modeling, Probabilistic Impact Assessment, and Adaptation Measures , 2017, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems.

[12]  Min Ouyang,et al.  A mathematical framework to optimize resilience of interdependent critical infrastructure systems under spatially localized attacks , 2017, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[13]  I. Linkov,et al.  Integrating Risk and Resilience Approaches to Catastrophe Management in Engineering Systems , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[14]  Seth D. Guikema,et al.  Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region , 2009, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[15]  An Zeng,et al.  Target recovery in complex networks , 2017 .

[16]  Berna Dengiz,et al.  An integrated simulation model for analysing electricity and gas systems , 2014 .

[17]  D. Riggs,et al.  Risk and resilience in military families experiencing deployment: the role of the family attachment network. , 2011, Journal of family psychology : JFP : journal of the Division of Family Psychology of the American Psychological Association.

[18]  Enrico Zio,et al.  An adaptive robust framework for the optimization of the resilience of interdependent infrastructures under natural hazards , 2019, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[19]  Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio,et al.  Cascading failures in complex infrastructure systems , 2009 .

[20]  I. Linkov,et al.  Changing the resilience paradigm , 2014 .

[21]  T. Aven,et al.  Concerns, Challenges, and Directions of Development for the Issue of Representing Uncertainty in Risk Assessment , 2014, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[22]  Devika Subramanian,et al.  Interface Network Models for Complex Urban Infrastructure Systems , 2011 .

[23]  Sybil Derrible,et al.  Complexity in future cities: the rise of networked infrastructure , 2017 .

[24]  Chi Ho Yeung,et al.  Recovery of infrastructure networks after localised attacks , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[25]  Gábor Csárdi,et al.  The igraph software package for complex network research , 2006 .

[26]  Pierluigi Mancarella,et al.  Multi-phase assessment and adaptation of power systems resilience to natural hazards , 2016 .

[27]  Roshanak Nateghi,et al.  Multi-Dimensional Infrastructure Resilience Modeling: An Application to Hurricane-Prone Electric Power Distribution Systems , 2018, IEEE Access.

[28]  C. S. Holling.  Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems , 1973 .

[29]  P. Hines,et al.  Do topological models provide good information about electricity infrastructure vulnerability? , 2010, Chaos.

[30]  T. Aven.  The Concept of Antifragility and its Implications for the Practice of Risk Analysis , 2015, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[31]  Nico Blüthgen,et al.  Ecosystem restoration strengthens pollination network resilience and function , 2017, Nature.

[32]  Jonas Johansson,et al.  Topological Performance Measures as Surrogates for Physical Flow Models for Risk and Vulnerability Analysis for Electric Power Systems , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[33]  Quanyan Zhu,et al.  Promoting resilience for food, energy, and water interdependencies , 2016, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences.

[34]  Kash Barker,et al.  Resilience-based network component importance measures , 2013, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[35]  Giovanni Sansavini,et al.  A quantitative method for assessing resilience of interdependent infrastructures , 2017, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[36]  Ake J Holmgren,et al.  Using Graph Models to Analyze the Vulnerability of Electric Power Networks , 2006, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[37]  Giovanni Sansavini,et al.  Emergence of Antifragility by Optimum Postdisruption Restoration Planning of Infrastructure Networks , 2017 .

[38]  Mevin B Hooten,et al.  Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges , 2018, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[39]  Michel Bruneau,et al.  A Framework to Quantitatively Assess and Enhance the Seismic Resilience of Communities , 2003 .

[40]  Seth D. Guikema,et al.  Modeling Power Outage Risk From Natural Hazards , 2018, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science.

[41]  Albert-László Barabási,et al.  Universal resilience patterns in complex networks , 2016, Nature.

[42]  Marcelo Masera,et al.  Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure , 2015, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[43]  Mark E. J. Newman,et al.  Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data , 2007, SIAM Rev..

[44]  Seth D. Guikema,et al.  Multi-Stage Prediction for Zero-Inflated Hurricane Induced Power Outages , 2018, IEEE Access.

[45]  Chuanyi Ji,et al.  Large-scale data analysis of power grid resilience across multiple US service regions , 2016, Nature Energy.

[46]  Albert-Lszl Barabsi,et al.  Network Science , 2016, Encyclopedia of Big Data.

[47]  S. Guikema,et al.  Simulation of tropical cyclone impacts to the U.S. power system under climate change scenarios , 2014, Climatic Change.

[48]  John E. Mitchell,et al.  Restoring infrastructure systems: An integrated network design and scheduling (INDS) problem , 2012, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[49]  Wenyuan Li,et al.  Reliability Assessment of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods , 1994 .

[50]  Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio,et al.  The Interdependent Network Design Problem for Optimal Infrastructure System Restoration , 2016, Comput. Aided Civ. Infrastructure Eng..

[51]  V Latora,et al.  Efficient behavior of small-world networks. , 2001, Physical review letters.

[52]  Barry J. Goodno,et al.  Interdependent Response of Networked Systems , 2007 .

[53]  J. A. Bondy,et al.  Graph Theory , 2008, Graduate Texts in Mathematics.