Epidemic spreading on activity-driven networks with attractiveness

We study SIS epidemic spreading processes unfolding on a recent generalization of the activity-driven modeling framework. In this model of time-varying networks, each node is described by two variables: activity and attractiveness. The first describes the propensity to form connections, while the second defines the propensity to attract them. We derive analytically the epidemic threshold considering the time scale driving the evolution of contacts and the contagion as comparable. The solutions are general and hold for any joint distribution of activity and attractiveness. The theoretical picture is confirmed via large-scale numerical simulations performed considering heterogeneous distributions and different correlations between the two variables. We find that heterogeneous distributions of attractiveness alter the contagion process. In particular, in the case of uncorrelated and positive correlations between the two variables, heterogeneous attractiveness facilitates the spreading. On the contrary, negative correlations between activity and attractiveness hamper the spreading. The results presented contribute to the understanding of the dynamical properties of time-varying networks and their effects on contagion phenomena unfolding on their fabric.

[1]  Piet Van Mieghem,et al.  Epidemic processes in complex networks , 2014, ArXiv.

[2]  Petter Holme,et al.  Bursty Communication Patterns Facilitate Spreading in a Threshold-Based Epidemic Dynamics , 2012, PloS one.

[3]  L. Christophorou Science , 2018, Emerging Dynamics: Science, Energy, Society and Values.

[4]  Margaret-Mary G. Wilson,et al.  Sexually transmitted diseases. , 2003, Clinics in geriatric medicine.

[5]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Controlling Contagion Processes in Time-Varying Networks , 2013, Physical review letters.

[6]  Andrea Baronchelli,et al.  Quantifying the effect of temporal resolution on time-varying networks , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[7]  Öznur Özkasap,et al.  Ad-Hoc Networks , 2008, Encyclopedia of Algorithms.

[8]  V. Colizza,et al.  Analytical computation of the epidemic threshold on temporal networks , 2014, 1406.4815.

[9]  D. Saad Europhysics Letters , 1997 .

[10]  Alessandro Vespignani Modelling dynamical processes in complex socio-technical systems , 2011, Nature Physics.

[11]  Dawei Zhao,et al.  Statistical physics of vaccination , 2016, ArXiv.

[12]  Albert Díaz-Guilera,et al.  Consensus in networks of mobile communicating agents. , 2011, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[13]  Andrea Baronchelli,et al.  Modeling human dynamics of face-to-face interaction networks , 2013, Physical review letters.

[14]  Ingo Scholtes,et al.  Betweenness Preference: Quantifying Correlations in the Topological Dynamics of Temporal Networks , 2012, Physical review letters.

[15]  Alain Barrat,et al.  Contact Patterns among High School Students , 2014, PloS one.

[16]  H. Stanley,et al.  Dynamic networks and directed percolation , 2009, 0901.4563.

[17]  Mark Newman,et al.  Dynamical systems on networks , 2018, Oxford Scholarship Online.

[18]  R. Rosenfeld Nature , 2009, Otolaryngology--head and neck surgery : official journal of American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery.

[19]  Jari Saramäki,et al.  Small But Slow World: How Network Topology and Burstiness Slow Down Spreading , 2010, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[20]  Andrea Baronchelli,et al.  Contagion dynamics in time-varying metapopulation networks , 2012, ArXiv.

[21]  P ? ? ? ? ? ? ? % ? ? ? ? , 1991 .

[22]  Nicola Perra,et al.  Social Phenomena: From Data Analysis to Models , 2015 .

[23]  Nicola Perra,et al.  Burstiness and tie activation strategies in time-varying social networks , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[24]  Maurizio Porfiri,et al.  Innovation diffusion on time-varying activity driven networks , 2016 .

[25]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks. , 2001, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[26]  Tapani Raiko,et al.  European conference on machine learning and knowledge discovery in databases , 2014 .

[27]  A. Barrat,et al.  Dynamical Patterns of Cattle Trade Movements , 2011, PloS one.

[28]  Kazuo Yano,et al.  Importance of individual events in temporal networks , 2012, ArXiv.

[29]  Z. Toroczkai,et al.  Proximity networks and epidemics , 2007 .

[30]  V. Latora,et al.  Complex networks: Structure and dynamics , 2006 .

[31]  VoLUME Xxxix,et al.  THE AMERICAN JOURNAL OF SOCIOLOGY , 2010 .

[32]  Claudio J. Tessone,et al.  The role of endogenous and exogenous mechanisms in the formation of R&D networks , 2014, Scientific Reports.

[33]  Nathan Eagle,et al.  Persistence and periodicity in a dynamic proximity network , 2012, ArXiv.

[34]  Romualdo Pastor-Satorras,et al.  Random walks on temporal networks. , 2012, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[35]  Ming Tang,et al.  Social contagions on time-varying community networks , 2016, Physical review. E.

[36]  Henry Ford,et al.  I. Introduction , 2007 .

[37]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Epidemic dynamics in finite size scale-free networks. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[38]  W. O. Kermack,et al.  A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics , 1927 .

[39]  Romualdo Pastor-Satorras,et al.  Nature of the epidemic threshold for the susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics in networks. , 2013, Physical review letters.

[40]  Mason A. Porter,et al.  Random walks and diffusion on networks , 2016, ArXiv.

[41]  A. Barrat,et al.  Simulation of an SEIR infectious disease model on the dynamic contact network of conference attendees , 2011, BMC medicine.

[42]  October I Physical Review Letters , 2022 .

[43]  Petter Holme,et al.  Birth and death of links control disease spreading in empirical contact networks , 2013, Scientific Reports.

[44]  Arkadiusz Stopczynski,et al.  Fundamental structures of dynamic social networks , 2015, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[45]  Juan Fernández-Gracia,et al.  Joint effect of ageing and multilayer structure prevents ordering in the voter model , 2017, Scientific Reports.

[46]  Mark E. J. Newman,et al.  The Structure and Function of Complex Networks , 2003, SIAM Rev..

[47]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Random walks and search in time-varying networks. , 2012, Physical review letters.

[48]  Maurizio Porfiri,et al.  A network model for Ebola spreading. , 2016, Journal of theoretical biology.

[49]  Esteban Moro Egido,et al.  The dynamical strength of social ties in information spreading , 2010, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[50]  A. Barrat,et al.  Estimating Potential Infection Transmission Routes in Hospital Wards Using Wearable Proximity Sensors , 2013, PloS one.

[51]  Andrea Baronchelli,et al.  Contrasting effects of strong ties on SIR and SIS processes in temporal networks , 2015 .

[52]  R. Pastor-Satorras,et al.  Activity driven modeling of time varying networks , 2012, Scientific Reports.

[53]  Albert-László Barabási,et al.  The origin of bursts and heavy tails in human dynamics , 2005, Nature.

[54]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Time varying networks and the weakness of strong ties , 2013, Scientific Reports.

[55]  M. Morris,et al.  Telling tails explain the discrepancy in sexual partner reports , 1993, Nature.

[56]  E. Kandel,et al.  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Annual subject and author indexes. , 1990, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[57]  Jari Saramäki,et al.  Multiscale analysis of spreading in a large communication network , 2011, ArXiv.

[58]  Petter Holme,et al.  Simulated Epidemics in an Empirical Spatiotemporal Network of 50,185 Sexual Contacts , 2010, PLoS Comput. Biol..

[59]  Kimmo Kaski,et al.  Circadian pattern and burstiness in mobile phone communication , 2011, 1101.0377.

[60]  Albert-Lszl Barabsi,et al.  Network Science , 2016, Encyclopedia of Big Data.

[61]  Romualdo Pastor-Satorras,et al.  Temporal percolation in activity-driven networks. , 2013, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[62]  Romualdo Pastor-Satorras,et al.  Burstiness and aging in social temporal networks , 2014, Physical review letters.

[63]  Christos Faloutsos,et al.  Epidemic spreading in real networks: an eigenvalue viewpoint , 2003, 22nd International Symposium on Reliable Distributed Systems, 2003. Proceedings..

[64]  Mason A. Porter,et al.  Generalized Master Equations for Non-Poisson Dynamics on Networks , 2011, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[65]  Petter Holme,et al.  The Basic Reproduction Number as a Predictor for Epidemic Outbreaks in Temporal Networks , 2014, PloS one.

[66]  Dun Han,et al.  Epidemic process on activity-driven modular networks , 2015 .

[67]  Jari Saramäki,et al.  Temporal Networks , 2011, Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining.

[68]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Asymptotic theory of time-varying social networks with heterogeneous activity and tie allocation , 2016, Scientific Reports.

[69]  Kathy P. Wheeler,et al.  Reviews of Modern Physics , 2013 .

[70]  Mark S. Granovetter The Strength of Weak Ties , 1973, American Journal of Sociology.

[71]  J. Kurths,et al.  Synchronization in networks of mobile oscillators. , 2010, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[72]  R. Sapolsky The Influence of Social Hierarchy on Primate Health , 2005, Science.

[73]  Mark Newman,et al.  Networks: An Introduction , 2010 .

[74]  Ciro Cattuto,et al.  What's in a crowd? Analysis of face-to-face behavioral networks , 2010, Journal of theoretical biology.

[75]  Rossano Schifanella,et al.  On the Dynamics of Human Proximity for Data Diffusion in Ad-Hoc Networks , 2011, Ad Hoc Networks.

[76]  Jari Saramäki,et al.  From calls to communities: a model for time-varying social networks , 2015, The European Physical Journal B.

[77]  Yamir Moreno,et al.  Effects of Network Structure, Competition and Memory Time on Social Spreading Phenomena , 2015, Physical Review. X.

[78]  Gourab Ghoshal,et al.  Attractiveness and activity in Internet communities , 2006 .

[79]  R. Solé,et al.  Self-organization versus hierarchy in open-source social networks. , 2007, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[80]  Naoki Masuda,et al.  A Guide to Temporal Networks , 2016, Series on Complexity Science.

[81]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Dynamical Processes on Complex Networks , 2008 .

[82]  Информатика,et al.  International Symposium on Reliable Distributed Systems , 2010 .

[83]  Ulrik Brandes,et al.  What is network science? , 2013, Network Science.

[84]  Romualdo Pastor-Satorras,et al.  Topological properties of a time-integrated activity-driven network. , 2013, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[85]  Petter Holme,et al.  Modern temporal network theory: a colloquium , 2015, The European Physical Journal B.

[86]  P. Holme Network dynamics of ongoing social relationships , 2003, cond-mat/0308544.

[87]  Andrea Baronchelli,et al.  Random walks on activity-driven networks with attractiveness. , 2017, Physical review. E.