The Efficacy of Biographical Inventory Data in Predicting Early Attrition in Naval Aviation Officer Candidate Training.

Abstract : Attrition in the training of U.S. naval aviation officer candidates represents a historic problem. The early identification of those likely to attrite during training would significantly reduce overall training expenditures. In this study, we assessed the value of biographical information for predicting early attrition at the indoctrination level of naval aviation officer training. We selected a random sample of 1551 aviation officer candidates and naval aviation cadets for analysis. The subjects selected had taken the Aviation Selection Test Battery (ASTB) between 1987 and 1990 and had completed the aviation indoctrination program operated by the Naval Aviation Schools Command in Pensacola, Florida. A principal component factor analysis of Biographical Inventory items was conducted with those who passed (N = 1176) and also with those who attrited (N = 375) basic aviation indoctrination. The resultant factors were then forced into a discriminant function analysis to determine if the factors obtained were different for the two groups. We found that the factors were significantly different for the two groups. The results indicate that biographical data may be useful in identifying candidates who are most likely to attrite early from naval aviation training.