On Data-Driven Computation of Information Transfer for Causal Inference in Dynamical Systems

In this paper, we provide a novel approach to capture causal interaction in a dynamical system from time-series data. In \cite{sinha_IT_CDC2016}, we have shown that the existing measures of information transfer, namely directed information, granger causality and transfer entropy fail to capture true causal interaction in dynamical system and proposed a new definition of information transfer that captures true causal interaction. The main contribution of this paper is to show that the proposed definition of information transfer in \cite{sinha_IT_CDC2016}\cite{sinha_IT_ICC} can be computed from time-series data. We use transfer operator theoretic framework involving Perron-Frobenius and Koopman operators for the data-driven approximation of the system dynamics and for the computation of information transfer. Several examples involving linear and nonlinear system dynamics are presented to verify the efficiency of the developed algorithm.

[1]  P. Schmid,et al.  Dynamic mode decomposition of numerical and experimental data , 2008, Journal of Fluid Mechanics.

[2]  Umesh Vaidya,et al.  Causality preserving information transfer measure for control dynamical system , 2016, 2016 IEEE 55th Conference on Decision and Control (CDC).

[3]  Umesh Vaidya,et al.  Data-Driven Approximation of Transfer Operators: Naturally Structured Dynamic Mode Decomposition , 2017, 2018 Annual American Control Conference (ACC).

[4]  P. Spirtes,et al.  Causation, prediction, and search , 1993 .

[5]  Schreiber,et al.  Measuring information transfer , 2000, Physical review letters.

[6]  Richard Kleeman,et al.  Information transfer between dynamical system components. , 2005, Physical review letters.

[7]  C. Sims Money, Income, and Causality , 1972 .

[8]  Alfred O. Hero,et al.  Motif Discovery in Tissue-Specific Regulatory Sequences Using Directed Information , 2007, EURASIP J. Bioinform. Syst. Biol..

[9]  R. Altman,et al.  Data-Driven Prediction of Drug Effects and Interactions , 2012, Science Translational Medicine.

[10]  Murti V. Salapaka,et al.  On the Problem of Reconstructing an Unknown Topology via Locality Properties of the Wiener Filter , 2010, IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control.

[11]  Aram Galstyan,et al.  Information transfer in social media , 2011, WWW.

[12]  C. Granger Testing for causality: a personal viewpoint , 1980 .

[13]  Jianfeng Feng,et al.  Granger causality vs. dynamic Bayesian network inference: a comparative study , 2009, BMC Bioinformatics.

[14]  Umesh Vaidya,et al.  On information transfer in discrete dynamical systems , 2017, 2017 Indian Control Conference (ICC).

[15]  O. Sporns Networks of the Brain , 2010 .

[16]  Jinsong Zhao,et al.  Data-driven causal inference based on a modified transfer entropy , 2012, Comput. Chem. Eng..

[17]  Gerhard Kramer,et al.  Directed information for channels with feedback , 1998 .

[18]  J. Massey CAUSALITY, FEEDBACK AND DIRECTED INFORMATION , 1990 .

[19]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems - networks of plausible inference , 1991, Morgan Kaufmann series in representation and reasoning.

[20]  Clarence W. Rowley,et al.  A Data–Driven Approximation of the Koopman Operator: Extending Dynamic Mode Decomposition , 2014, Journal of Nonlinear Science.

[21]  Sean C. Warnick,et al.  Dynamical structure function identifiability conditions enabling signal structure reconstruction , 2012, 2012 IEEE 51st IEEE Conference on Decision and Control (CDC).

[22]  Umesh Vaidya,et al.  Robust Approximation of Koopman Operator and Prediction in Random Dynamical Systems , 2018, 2018 Annual American Control Conference (ACC).

[23]  Bernhard Schölkopf,et al.  Distinguishing Cause from Effect Using Observational Data: Methods and Benchmarks , 2014, J. Mach. Learn. Res..

[24]  M. Mackey,et al.  Chaos, Fractals, and Noise: Stochastic Aspects of Dynamics , 1998 .

[25]  Jürgen Beyerer,et al.  Data-Driven Methods for the Detection of Causal Structures in Process Technology , 2014 .

[26]  C. Granger Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods , 1969 .

[27]  Joe H. Chow,et al.  Time scale modeling of sparse dynamic networks , 1985 .