Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia)

Climate-driven changes in glacier-fed streamflow regimes have direct implications on freshwater supply, irrigation and hydropower potential. Reliable information about current and future glaciation and runoff is crucial for water allocation, a complex task in Central Asia, where the collapse of the Soviet Union has transformed previously interdependent republics into autonomous upstream and downstream countries. Although the impacts of climate change on glaciation and runoff have been addressed in previous work undertaken in the Tien Shan (known as the ‘water tower of Central Asia’), a coherent, regional perspective of these findings has not been presented until now. Here we show that glacier shrinkage is most pronounced in peripheral, lower-elevation ranges near the densely populated forelands, where summers are dry and where snow and glacial meltwater is essential for water availability. Shifts of seasonal runoff maxima have already been observed in some rivers, and it is suggested that summer runoff will further decrease in these rivers if precipitation and discharge from thawing permafrost bodies do not compensate sufficiently for water shortfalls.

[1]  Georg Kaser,et al.  Contribution potential of glaciers to water availability in different climate regimes , 2010, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[2]  Roger G. Barry,et al.  The retreat of tien shan glaciers (kyrgyzstan) since the little ice age estimated from aerial photographs, lichenometric and historical data , 2004 .

[3]  B. Janský,et al.  Mountain lakes of Kyrgyzstan with regard to the risk of their rupture , 2009 .

[4]  Northern Aral Sea recovering , 2007 .

[5]  Jeff Dozier,et al.  Climatic and hydrologic changes in the Tien Shan, central Asia , 1997 .

[6]  Vladimir E. Romanovsky,et al.  Permafrost warming in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia , 2007 .

[7]  Roberto Ranzi,et al.  Climate and hydrology in mountain areas , 2005 .

[8]  W. Tad Pfeffer,et al.  Recent contributions of glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise , 2012, Nature.

[9]  Yaning Chen,et al.  Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China , 2006 .

[10]  Arzhan B. Surazakov,et al.  Glacier changes in the central and northern Tien Shan during the last 140 years based on surface and remote-sensing data , 2006, Annals of Glaciology.

[11]  A. Bunde,et al.  LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AIR TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CENTRAL ASIA , 2007 .

[12]  Tobias Bolch,et al.  Climate change and glacier retreat in northern Tien Shan (Kazakhstan/Kyrgyzstan) using remote sensing data , 2007 .

[13]  T. Bolch.  Significance of glaciers, rockglaciers and ice-rich permafrost in the Northern Tien Shan as water towers under climate change conditions , 2006 .

[14]  B. Bookhagen,et al.  Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover , 2011 .

[15]  M. Dyurgerov,et al.  On the cause of glacier mass balance variations in the Tian Shan Mountains , 1994 .

[16]  W. Hagga,et al.  Modelling of hydrological response to climate change in glacierized Central Asian catchments , 2010 .

[17]  Peter Bauer-Gottwein,et al.  Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia? , 2012, Climatic Change.

[18]  Yongjian Ding,et al.  Glacier changes during the last forty years in the Tarim Interior River basin, northwest China , 2009 .

[19]  P. Niederer,et al.  Tracing glacier wastage in the Northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan/Central Asia) over the last 40 years , 2008 .

[20]  J. Palutikof,et al.  Climate change 2007 : impacts, adaptation and vulnerability , 2001 .

[21]  A. Bunde,et al.  LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF AIR TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN CENTRAL ASIA 1) , 2007 .

[22]  A. Sterl,et al.  The ERA‐40 re‐analysis , 2005 .

[23]  H. Loáiciga,et al.  Simulation of daily runoff in Central Asian alpine watersheds , 2000 .

[24]  Hui Tao,et al.  Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years: Human impact or climate change? , 2011 .

[25]  J. Klerkx,et al.  Lake Issyk-Kul : its natural environment , 2002 .

[26]  Yuichi Shimamura,et al.  Recent changes of glacier coverage in the western Terskey-Alatoo range, Kyrgyz Republic, using Corona and Landsat , 2006, Annals of Glaciology.

[27]  Manfred F. Buchroithner,et al.  Identification of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the northern Tien Shan , 2011 .

[28]  M. Hoelzle,et al.  WGMS 2009. Glacier Mass Balance Bulletin No. 10 (2006-2007) , 2009 .

[29]  H. Matsuyama,et al.  Decrease of river runoff in the Lake Balkhash basin in Central Asia , 2006 .

[30]  J. Böhner.  Säkulare Klimaschwankungen und rezente Klimatrends, Zentral- und Hochasiens , 1996 .

[31]  Koji Fujita,et al.  Role of supraglacial ponds in the ablation process of a debris-covered glacier in the Nepal Himalayas , 2000 .

[32]  N. Thevs.  Water Scarcity and Allocation in the Tarim Basin: Decision Structures and Adaptations on the Local Level , 2011 .

[33]  Andreas Kääb,et al.  The 24 July 2008 outburst flood at the western Zyndan glacier lake and recent regional changes in glacier lakes of the Teskey Ala-Too range, Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan , 2010 .

[34]  T. Bernauer,et al.  Will Climate Change Exacerbate or Mitigate Water Stress in Central Asia , 2010 .

[35]  M. Hoelzle,et al.  Application of inventory data for estimating characteristics of and regional climate-change effects on mountain glaciers: a pilot study with the European Alps , 1995, Annals of Glaciology.

[36]  G. Henebry,et al.  Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan , 2009 .

[37]  Vladimir B. Aizen,et al.  Glaciers and hydrological changes in the Tien Shan: simulation and prediction , 2007 .

[38]  L. Braun,et al.  A comparison of three methods of mass-balance determination in the Tuyuksu glacier region, Tien Shan, Central Asia , 2004, Journal of Glaciology.

[39]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[40]  Arzhan B. Surazakov,et al.  Glacier changes in the Tien Shan as determined from topographic and remotely sensed data , 2007 .

[41]  Ding Yongjian,et al.  Preliminary Study of Mass Balance on the Keqicar Baxi Glacier on the South Slopes of Tianshan Mountains , 2006 .

[42]  Yongjian Ding,et al.  Glacier retreat as a result of climate warming and increased precipitation in the Tarim river basin, northwest China , 2006, Annals of Glaciology.

[43]  Jürgen Böhner,et al.  General climatic controls and topoclimatic variations in Central and High Asia , 2006 .

[44]  M. Bierkens,et al.  Climate Change Will Affect the Asian Water Towers , 2010, Science.

[45]  Zhong-qin Li,et al.  Spatial distribution of the debris layer on glaciers of the Tuomuer Peak, western Tian Shan , 2011 .

[46]  Koji Fujita,et al.  Temporal Changes in Elevation of the Debris-Covered Ablation Area of Khumbu Glacier in the Nepal Himalaya since 1978 , 2011 .

[47]  P. Micklin.  Desiccation of the Aral Sea: A Water Management Disaster in the Soviet Union , 1988, Science.

[48]  K. Watkins.  Human Development Report 2006 - Beyond Scarcity: Power, Poverty and the Global Water Crisis , 2006 .

[49]  Vladimir B. Aizen,et al.  Geo-informational simulation of possible changes in Central Asian water resources , 2007 .

[50]  Shangguan Donghui.  Glacier Changes at the Head of Yurungkax River in the West Kunlun Mountains in the Past 32 Years , 2004 .

[51]  T. Bernauer,et al.  Climate change and international water conflict in Central Asia , 2012 .

[52]  T. Yao,et al.  Recent glacial retreat in High Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China , 2004 .

[53]  M. Cao.  Detection of abrupt changes in glacier mass balance in the Tien Shan Mountains , 1998, Journal of Glaciology.

[54]  Xiang Qin,et al.  Black Carbon (BC) in the snow of glaciers in west China and its potential effects on albedos , 2009 .

[55]  Rolf Weingartner,et al.  Assessing the Hydrological Significance of the World's Mountains , 2003 .

[56]  Andreas Kääb,et al.  Spatial variability of recent glacier area changes in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia, using Corona (~ 1970), Landsat (~ 2000), and ALOS (~ 2007) satellite data , 2010 .

[57]  Frank Paul,et al.  Modeling of glacier bed topography from glacier outlines, central branch lines, and a DEM , 2012, Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci..

[58]  Achim Helm,et al.  Sub‐debris melt rates on southern inylchek glacier, central tian shan , 2008 .

[59]  M. Williams,et al.  Central Asia Temperature and Precipitation Data, 1879-2003 , 2008 .

[60]  John M. Melack,et al.  Precipitation, melt and runoff in the northern Tien Shan , 1996 .

[61]  Liu Shiyin,et al.  Snow Cover Distribution, Variability, and Response to Climate Change in Western China , 2006 .

[62]  Frank Paul,et al.  Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades? , 2006 .

[63]  Han Tianding,et al.  Relation between recent glacier variations and climate in the Tien Shan mountains, central Asia , 1992, Annals of Glaciology.

[64]  V. Mikhalenko.  Changes in Eurasian glaciation during the past century: glacier mass balance and ice-core evidence , 1997, Annals of Glaciology.

[65]  T. Bolch,et al.  Multi-decadal mass loss of glaciers in the Everest area (Nepal Himalaya) derived from stereo imagery , 2011 .

[66]  A. Bauder,et al.  A method to estimate the ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of alpine glaciers , 2009 .

[67]  T. Bolch,et al.  The State and Fate of Himalayan Glaciers , 2012, Science.

[68]  Maria Shahgedanova,et al.  Glacier retreat and climatic variability in the eastern Terskey–Alatoo, inner Tien Shan between the middle of the 19th century and beginning of the 21st century , 2009 .

[69]  T. Barnett,et al.  Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions , 2005, Nature.

[70]  M. Becht,et al.  Runoff modelling in glacierized Central Asian catchments for present-day and future climate , 2006 .

[71]  L. Braun,et al.  Present and future impact of snow cover and glaciers on runoff from mountain regions , 2010 .

[72]  K. Fujita,et al.  Favorable climatic regime for maintaining the present-day geometry of the Gregoriev Glacier, Inner Tien Shan , 2011 .

[73]  S. Peckham,et al.  The physical basis of glacier volume-area scaling , 1997 .

[74]  John M. Melack,et al.  Climate, Snow Cover, Glaciers, and Runoff in the Tien Shan, Central Asia , 1995 .

[75]  Roger G. Barry,et al.  Late‐twentieth century changes in glacier extent in the Ak‐shirak Range, Central Asia, determined from historical data and ASTER imagery , 2003 .