The North Atlantic Oscillation and regional phenology prediction over Europe

We present an integrated modeling study designed to investigate changes in ecosystem level phenology over Europe associated with changes in climate pattern, by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We derived onset dates from processed NDVI data sets and used growing degree day (GDD) summations from the NCEP re-analysis to calibrate and validate a phenology model to predict the onset of the growing season over Europe. In a cross-validation hindcast, the model (PHENOM) is able to explain 63% of the variance in onset date for grid cells containing at least 50% mixed and boreal forest. Using a model developed from previous work we performed climate change scenarios, generating synthetic temperature and GDD distributions under a hypothetically increasing NAO. These new distributions were used to drive PHENOM and project changes in the timing of onset for forested cells over Europe. Results from the climate change scenarios indicate that, if the current trend in the NAO continues, there is the potential for a continued advance to the start of the growing season by as much as 13 days in some areas.

[1]  I. C. Prentice,et al.  Climatic Control of the High-Latitude Vegetation Greening Trend and Pinatubo Effect , 2002, Science.

[2]  Ranga B. Myneni,et al.  The interpretation of spectral vegetation indexes , 1995, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[3]  J. Hurrell.  Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on northern hemisphere temperature , 1996 .

[4]  A. Belward,et al.  The Best Index Slope Extraction ( BISE): A method for reducing noise in NDVI time-series , 1992 .

[5]  John M. Wallace,et al.  Annular Modes and Climate Prediction , 2002 .

[6]  J. Houghton,et al.  Climate change 2001 : the scientific basis , 2001 .

[7]  Hui Qing Liu,et al.  A feedback based modification of the NDVI to minimize canopy background and atmospheric noise , 1995, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing.

[8]  M. Scholze,et al.  Constraining temperature variations over the last millennium by comparing simulated and observed atmospheric CO2 , 2003 .

[9]  J. Wallace,et al.  The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields , 1998 .

[10]  C. Tucker,et al.  Variations in northern vegetation activity inferred from satellite data of vegetation index during 1981 to 1999 , 2001 .

[11]  A. Menzel,et al.  Trends in phenological phases in Europe between 1951 and 1996 , 2000, International journal of biometeorology.

[12]  T. Rötzer,et al.  Response of tree phenology to climate change across Europe , 2001 .

[13]  P. D’Odorico,et al.  Changing Seasons: An Effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation? , 2002 .

[14]  T. Carlson,et al.  On the relation between NDVI, fractional vegetation cover, and leaf area index , 1997 .

[15]  J. Wallace,et al.  Regional Climate Impacts of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode , 2001, Science.

[16]  J. Peñuelas,et al.  Responses to a Warming World , 2001, Science.

[17]  A. Fitter,et al.  Rapid Changes in Flowering Time in British Plants , 2002, Science.

[18]  C. Defila,et al.  Phytophenological trends in Switzerland , 2001, International journal of biometeorology.

[19]  Thomas J. Schmugge,et al.  Remote estimation of soil moisture availability and fractional vegetation cover for agricultural fields , 1990 .

[20]  M. Lechowicz,et al.  Predicting the timing of budburst in temperate trees , 1992 .

[21]  G. Schmidt,et al.  Simulation of recent northern winter climate trends by greenhouse-gas forcing , 1999, Nature.

[22]  B. Cook,et al.  Statistical simulation of the influence of the NAO on European winter surface temperatures: Applications to phenological modeling , 2004 .

[23]  S. Running,et al.  The impact of growing-season length variability on carbon assimilation and evapotranspiration over 88 years in the eastern US deciduous forest , 1999, International journal of biometeorology.

[24]  PHENOLOGICAL STAGE MONITORING IN SIBERIA BY USING NOAA/AVHRR DATA , 2001 .

[25]  G. Dedieu,et al.  Global-Scale Assessment of Vegetation Phenology Using NOAA/AVHRR Satellite Measurements , 1997 .

[26]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[27]  J. Hurrell.  Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation , 1995, Science.

[28]  P. Jones,et al.  Extension to the North Atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south‐west Iceland , 1997 .

[29]  Uwe Ulbrich,et al.  A shift of the NAO and increasing storm track activity over Europe due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing , 1999 .

[30]  J. Townshend,et al.  NDVI-derived land cover classifications at a global scale , 1994 .

[31]  S. Running,et al.  A continental phenology model for monitoring vegetation responses to interannual climatic variability , 1997 .

[32]  Dimitrios Gyalistras,et al.  North Atlantic Oscillation – Concepts And Studies , 2001 .

[33]  S. Running,et al.  Satellite Evidence of Phenological Differences Between Urbanized and Rural Areas of the Eastern United States Deciduous Broadleaf Forest , 2002, Ecosystems.

[34]  Pierre Friedlingstein,et al.  A global prognostic scheme of leaf onset using satellite data , 2000 .

[35]  I. Leinonen,et al.  The importance of phenology for the evaluation of impact of climate change on growth of boreal, temperate and Mediterranean forests ecosystems: an overview , 2000, International journal of biometeorology.

[36]  Annette Menzel,et al.  Growing season extended in Europe , 1999, Nature.

[37]  O. Hoegh‐Guldberg,et al.  Ecological responses to recent climate change , 2002, Nature.

[38]  Jiri Nekovar,et al.  Phenology in central Europe – differences and trends of spring phenophases in urban and rural areas , 2000, International journal of biometeorology.

[39]  Mark D. Schwartz,et al.  Changes in North American spring , 2000 .

[40]  P. Jones,et al.  Evaluation of the North Atlantic Oscillation as simulated by a coupled climate model , 1999 .

[41]  H. Freeland,et al.  Spring phenology trends in Alberta, Canada: links to ocean temperature , 2000, International journal of biometeorology.

[42]  Steve Frolking,et al.  Detecting and predicting spatial and interannual patterns of temperate forest springtime phenology in the eastern U.S. , 2002 .

[43]  T. Sparks,et al.  The Responses of Species to Climate Over Two Centuries: An Analysis of the Marsham Phenological Record, 1736-1947 , 1995 .

[44]  Nils Chr. Stenseth,et al.  CLIMATIC VARIABILITY, PLANT PHENOLOGY, AND NORTHERN UNGULATES , 1999 .