Dynamic Causal Patterns of Desertification

Abstract Using a meta-analytical research design, we analyzed subnational case studies (n = 132) on the causes of dryland degradation, also referred to as desertification, to determine whether the proximate causes and underlying driving forces fall into any pattern and to identify mediating factors, feedback mechanisms, cross-scalar dynamics, and typical pathways of dryland ecosystem change. Our results show that desertification is driven by a limited suite of recurrent core variables, of which the most prominent at the underlying level are climatic factors, economic factors, institutions, national policies, population growth, and remote influences. At the proximate level, these factors drive cropland expansion, overgrazing, and infrastructure extension. Identifiable regional patterns of synergies among causal factors, in combination with feedback mechanisms and regional land-use and environmental histories, make up specific pathways of land change for each region and time period. Understanding these pathways is crucial for appropriate policy interventions, which have to be fine-tuned to the region-specific dynamic patterns associated with desertification.

[1]  Eric F. Lambin,et al.  The land managers who have lost control of their land use: implications for sustainability , 2003 .

[2]  G. Pickup,et al.  Effects of rainfall variability and communal and semi-commercial grazing on land cover in southern African rangelands , 2001 .

[3]  G. Keya.  Herbaceous layer production and utilization by herbivores under different ecological conditions in an arid savanna of Kenya , 1998 .

[4]  M. Runnström,et al.  Is Northern China Winning the Battle against Desertification? , 2000 .

[5]  C. Guodong,et al.  Water resource development and its influence on the environment in arid areas of China—the case of the Hei River basin , 1999 .

[6]  H. Geist,et al.  The Causes and Progression of Desertification , 2005 .

[7]  Nikolai Kharin,et al.  Vegetation Degradation in Central Asia under the Impact of Human Activities , 2002, Springer Netherlands.

[8]  E. J. Schiller,et al.  A Water Resources Planning Response to Climate Change in the Senegal River Basin , 1997 .

[9]  D. Donahue,et al.  Environmental variability within the Chinese desert-loess transition zone over the last 20000 years , 2002 .

[10]  J. Reynolds,et al.  Global desertification: do humans cause deserts? , 2002 .

[11]  James H. Brown,et al.  Reorganization of an arid ecosystem in response to recent climate change. , 1997, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[12]  Igor S. Zonn,et al.  Irrigation expansion and dynamics of desertification in the Circum-Aral region of Central Asia , 2000 .

[13]  E. Lambin,et al.  Dynamics of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change in Tropical Regions , 2003 .

[14]  H. Dregne.  Land Degradation in the Drylands , 2002 .

[15]  A. McMichael,et al.  Ecosystems and Human well-being , 2003 .

[16]  D. A. Gagliardini,et al.  Status of desertification in the Patagonian region: Assessment and mapping from satellite imagery , 1998 .

[17]  R. Mwalyosi.  Land-use Changes and Resource Degradation in South–West Masailand, Tanzania , 1992, Environmental Conservation.

[18]  Eric F. Lambin,et al.  The Influence of Land Use Change on Climate in the Sahel , 2002 .

[19]  H. L. Houérou,et al.  Man-Made Deserts: Desertization Processes and Threats , 2002 .

[20]  M. Mortimore,et al.  Implications of land use change for the production of plant biomass in densely populated Sahelo-Sudanian shrub-grasslands in north-east Nigeria. , 1999 .

[21]  Peter Nijkamp,et al.  Methodological complexity in the use of meta-analysis for empirical environmental case studies , 1997 .

[22]  Andrew Warren,et al.  Land degradation is contextual , 2002 .

[23]  David S. G. Thomas,et al.  Science and the desertification debate , 1997 .

[24]  J. Puigdefabregas.  Ecological impacts of global change on drylands and their implications for desertification , 1998 .

[25]  Stephen J. Walsh,et al.  Linking Household and Remotely Sensed Data , 2004 .

[26]  J F Reynolds,et al.  Biological Feedbacks in Global Desertification , 1990, Science.

[27]  Peter Nijkamp,et al.  Meta-analysis for comparative environmental case studies : methodological issues , 1997 .

[28]  D. Tilman,et al.  The Importance of Land-Use Legacies to Ecology and Conservation , 2003 .

[29]  Mario G. Manzano,et al.  Overgrazing and desertification in northern Mexico: highlights on north eastern region. , 2000 .

[30]  C. Kosmas,et al.  The effect of land use change on soils and vegetation over various lithological formations on ž / Lesvos Greece , 2000 .

[31]  Júlia Seixas,et al.  Assessing heterogeneity from remote sensing images: The case of desertification in southern Portugal , 2000 .

[32]  C. Tucker,et al.  Enhancement of Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel by Vegetation Interaction. , 1999, Science.

[33]  K. Havstad,et al.  Perspectives on desertification: south-western United States , 1998 .

[34]  G. Pickup,et al.  Desertification and climate change—the Australian perspective , 1998 .

[35]  J. W. Bruce,et al.  The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths , 2001 .

[36]  David Sneath,et al.  State Policy and Pasture Degradation in Inner Asia , 1998, Science.

[37]  Maryam Niamir-Fuller,et al.  Managing mobility in African rangelands: the legitimization of transhumance. , 1999 .

[38]  M. Turner.  Labor Process and the Environment: The Effects of Labor Availability and Compensation on the Quality of Herding in the Sahel , 1999 .

[39]  M. Glantz.  Drought follows the plow : cultivating marginal areas , 1994 .

[40]  Kjeld Rasmussen,et al.  Desertification in reverse? Observations from northern Burkina Faso , 2001 .

[41]  David S. G. Thomas,et al.  World atlas of desertification. , 1994 .

[42]  Ulf Helldén,et al.  Desertification - time for an assessment? , 1991 .

[43]  F. Han,et al.  Eco-environmental problems and effective utilization of water resources in the Kashi Plain, western Terim Basin, China , 2001 .

[44]  Y. Xue,et al.  The interplay between international and local processes affecting desertification , 2000 .

[45]  G. Fischer,et al.  Land-use and land-cover change. Science/research plan , 1995 .

[46]  D. Aagesen,et al.  Crisis and conservation at the end of the world: sheep ranching in Argentine Patagonia , 2000, Environmental Conservation.

[47]  S. Breckle,et al.  Deserts, Land Use and Desertification , 2001 .

[48]  E. Lambin,et al.  Proximate Causes and Underlying Driving Forces of Tropical Deforestation , 2002 .