Rain‐on‐snow events impact soil temperatures and affect ungulate survival

[1] Field data from Spitsbergen and numerical modeling reveal that rain-on-snow (ROS) events can substantially increase sub-snowpack soil temperatures. However, ROS events have not previously been accounted for in high latitude soil thermal analyses. Furthermore such events can result in widespread die-offs of ungulates due to soil surface icing. The occurrence of Spitsbergen ROS events is controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation. Globally, atmospheric reanalysis data show that significant ROS events occur predominantly over northern maritime climates, covering 8.4 × 106 km2. Under a standard climate change scenario, a global climate model predicts a 40% increase in the ROS area by 2080–2089.

[1]  A. Pavlov.  Permafrost-climatic monitoring of Russia: Analysis of field data and forecast , 2008 .

[2]  E. Reimers,et al.  POPULATION DYNAMICS IN TWO SUBPOPULATIONS OF REINDEER IN SVALBARD , 1977 .

[3]  J. Putkonen,et al.  Soil Thermal Properties and Heat Transfer Processes Near Ny Alesund , 1998 .

[4]  W. Oechel,et al.  Observational Evidence of Recent Change in the Northern High-Latitude Environment , 2000 .

[5]  Jane M. Soons,et al.  GEOCRYOLOGY, A SURVEY OF PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES AND ENVIRONMENTS , 1981 .

[6]  B. Sæther,et al.  Fluctuations of an introduced population of Svalbard reindeer: the effects of density dependence and climatic variation , 2000 .

[7]  Anne Gunn,et al.  The Recent Decline of Peary Caribou on Western Queen Elizabeth Islands of Artic Canada , 1975 .

[8]  Climatic warming and the degradation of warm permafrost , 1996 .

[9]  A. L. Washburn,et al.  Geocryology: A survey of periglacial processes and environments , 1979 .

[10]  J. Wallace,et al.  Regional Climate Impacts of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode , 2001, Science.

[11]  Michael W. Smith,et al.  Permafrost monitoring and detection of climate change , 1996 .

[12]  J. Gosink,et al.  Variations in permafrost thickness in response to changes in paleoclimate , 1991 .

[13]  Zong-ci Zhao,et al.  Climate change 2001, the scientific basis, chap. 8: model evaluation. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC , 2001 .

[14]  E. Reimers.  WINTER MORTALITY AND POPULATION TRENDS OF REINDEER ON SVALBARD, NORWAY , 1982 .

[15]  Oleg A. Anisimov,et al.  Global warming and active-layer thickness: results from transient general circulation models , 1997 .

[16]  B. Sæther,et al.  Effects of density-dependence and climate on the dynamics of a Svalbard reindeer population , 2001 .

[17]  J. Hurrell,et al.  DECADAL VARIATIONS IN CLIMATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION , 1997 .

[18]  M. König,et al.  The thermal conductivity of seasonal snow , 1997, Journal of Glaciology.

[19]  J. Kumpula.  Productivity of the semi-domesticated reindeer ( Rangifer t. tarandus L.) stock and carrying capacity of pastures in Finland during 1960-1990's , 2001 .

[20]  Mark P. Baldwin,et al.  Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes , 2001, Science.

[21]  J. Kumpula,et al.  Occurrence of certain microfungi on reindeer pastures in northern Finland during winter 1996-97. , 2000 .

[22]  Howard Conway,et al.  Snow stability during rain , 1993, Journal of Glaciology.

[23]  J. Hurrell.  Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation , 1995, Science.

[24]  M. Forchhammer,et al.  The muskoxen Ovibos moschatus in north and northeast Greenland: population trends and the influence of abiotic parameters on population dynamics , 1993 .

[25]  H. Conway,et al.  Infiltration of water into snow , 1994 .

[26]  Bernard Hallet,et al.  Dynamics of Periglacial Sorted Circles in Western Spitsbergen , 1986, Quaternary Research.

[27]  Douglas L. Kane,et al.  Thermal response of the active layer to climatic warming in a permafrost environment , 1991 .

[28]  Robert G. White,et al.  The porcupine caribou herd , 2002 .

[29]  A. Lachenbruch,et al.  Changing Climate: Geothermal Evidence from Permafrost in the Alaskan Arctic , 1986, Science.