The Effects of Hot Spots Policing on Crime: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

In recent years, crime scholars and practitioners have pointed to the potential benefits of focusing police crime prevention efforts on crime places. Research suggests that there is significant clustering of crime in small places or “hot spots.” A number of researchers have argued that crime problems can be reduced more efficiently if police officers focused their attention to these deviant places. In this article, we update and improve upon a previously completed Campbell Collaboration systematic review of the effects of hot spots policing and crime. Meta-analyses were used to determine the size, direction, and statistical significance of the overall impact of hot spots policing strategies on crime. The results of our research suggests that hot spots policing generates small but noteworthy crime reductions, and these crime control benefits diffuse into areas immediately surrounding targeted crime hot spots. Our analyses find that problem-oriented policing interventions generate larger mean effect sizes when compared to interventions that simply increase levels of traditional police actions in crime hot spots. We also find that only a small number of studies examine the impacts of hot spots policing on police-community relations. The extant research on this topic, however, suggests that community members have positive reactions to these focused policing actions.

[1]  John S. Goldkamp,et al.  TARGETED ENFORCEMENT AND ADVERSE SYSTEM SIDE EFFECTS: THE GENERATION OF FUGITIVES IN PHILADELPHIA* , 2008 .

[2]  Glenn L. Pierce,et al.  REEXAMINING SOCIAL DISORGANIZATION THEORY USING CALLS TO THE POLICE AS A MEASURE OF CRIME , 1993 .

[3]  Anthony A. Braga,et al.  CriticThe limits of hot spots policing , 2006 .

[4]  Anthony A. Braga,et al.  Policing Problem Places , 2010 .

[5]  L. Green Policing places with drug problems , 1996 .

[6]  David Weisburd,et al.  Does Research Design Affect Study Outcomes in Criminal Justice? , 2001 .

[7]  Leland Wilkinson,et al.  Statistical Methods in Psychology Journals Guidelines and Explanations , 2005 .

[8]  T. Wigram,et al.  Therapeutic Songwriting in Music Therapy , 2008 .

[9]  Rene B.P. Hesseling,et al.  DISPLACEMENT: A REVIEW OF THE EMPIRICAL LITERATURE , 2006 .

[10]  David Weisburd,et al.  Defining the street-level drug market , 1994 .

[11]  Ronald V. Clarke,et al.  DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS: OBSERVATIONS ON THE REVERSE OF DISPLACEMENT , 2006 .

[12]  Stephen D. Gottfredson,et al.  Environmental Design, Crime, and Prevention: An Examination of Community Dynamics , 1986, Crime and Justice.

[13]  Ken Pease,et al.  Crime Placement, Displacement, and Deflection , 1990, Crime and Justice.

[14]  Amos H. Hawley,et al.  Ecology and Human Ecology , 1944 .

[15]  Anthony A. Braga,et al.  An Ex Post Facto Evaluation Framework for Place-Based Police Interventions , 2011, Evaluation review.

[16]  R. Tweedie,et al.  A Nonparametric “Trim and Fill” Method of Accounting for Publication Bias in Meta-Analysis , 2000 .

[17]  E. Bittner The Functions of the Police in Modern Society: A Review of Background Factors, Current Practices, and Possible Role Models , 1979 .

[18]  R. Hyman Quasi-Experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings (Book) , 1982 .

[19]  Anthony A. Braga,et al.  Hot spots policing and crime prevention: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials , 2005 .

[20]  George L. Kelling,et al.  The Kansas City preventive patrol experiment : a technical report , 1974 .

[21]  Mark W. Lipsey,et al.  Practical Meta-Analysis , 2000 .

[22]  Tom R. Tyler,et al.  Social Justice: Outcome and Procedure , 2000 .

[23]  Richard Rosenfeld,et al.  Crime: Public policies for crime control , 2002 .

[24]  Jacob Cohen Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences , 1969, The SAGE Encyclopedia of Research Design.

[25]  T. Cook,et al.  Quasi-experimentation: Design & analysis issues for field settings , 1979 .

[26]  Lawrence W. Sherman,et al.  General deterrent effects of police patrol in crime “hot spots”: A randomized, controlled trial , 1995 .

[27]  Anthony A. Braga,et al.  The Effects of Hot Spots Policing on Crime , 2001 .

[28]  Ben Bowling,et al.  Fair and Effective Policing Methods: Towards ‘Good Enough’ Policing , 2007 .

[29]  H. Goldstein PROBLEM-ORIENTED POLICING , 2002 .

[30]  Amos H. Hawley Human Ecology—A Theory of Community Structure , 1950 .

[31]  James W. Shaw,et al.  Community policing against guns: Public opinion of the kansas city gun experiment , 1995 .

[32]  David Weisburd,et al.  The possible “backfire” effects of hot spots policing: an experimental assessment of impacts on legitimacy, fear and collective efficacy , 2011 .

[33]  Petra Kaufmann,et al.  Experimental And Quasi Experimental Designs For Research , 2016 .

[34]  Robert Boruch,et al.  Populating an International Web-Based Randomized Trials Register in the Social, Behavioral, Criminological, and Education Sciences , 2003 .

[35]  Brian Lawton,et al.  Police Officers on Drug Corners in Philadelphia, Drug Crime, and Violent Crime: Intended, Diffusion, and Displacement Impacts , 2005 .

[36]  D. Weisburd,et al.  Police Innovation: Advocate Hot spots policing as a model for police innovation , 2006 .

[37]  Lorraine Mazerolle,et al.  Street‐Level Drug Law Enforcement: A Meta‐Analytic Review , 2007 .

[38]  Thomas A. Reppetto Crime Prevention and the Displacement Phenomenon , 1976 .

[39]  Anthony Allan Braga,et al.  Solving Violent Crime Problems: An Evaluation of the Jersey City Police Department's Pilot Program to Control Violent Places , 1997 .

[40]  Tim Hope,et al.  PROBLEM-ORIENTED POLICING AND DRUG-MARKET LOCATIONS: THREE CASE STUDIES , 2006 .

[41]  H. D. McKay,et al.  Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas. , 1943 .

[42]  L. Sherman Police Crackdowns: Initial and Residual Deterrence , 1990, Crime and Justice.

[43]  T. Tyler,et al.  Public trust and confidence in legal authorities: What do majority and minority group members want from the law and legal institutions? , 2001, Behavioral sciences & the law.

[44]  John E. Eck,et al.  Preventing crime at places , 2003 .

[45]  M. Felson,et al.  Routine activity and rational choice , 2004 .

[46]  Brandon C. Welsh,et al.  Evidence-Based Crime Prevention , 2002 .

[47]  Hot Spots Policing , 2015 .

[48]  Wim Bernasco,et al.  Putting crime in its place: Units of analysis in geographic criminology , 2009 .

[49]  David Weisburd,et al.  Measuring immediate spatial displacement : Methodological issues and problems , 1995 .

[50]  Bruce G. Taylor,et al.  A randomized controlled trial of different policing strategies at hot spots of violent crime , 2011 .

[51]  David B. Wilson Missing a critical piece of the pie: simple document search strategies inadequate for systematic reviews , 2009 .

[52]  Michael Tonry,et al.  Less imprisonment is no doubt a good thing: more policing is not , 2011 .

[53]  John E. Eck,et al.  Policing for crime prevention , 2003 .

[54]  Anthony A. Braga,et al.  Problem-oriented policing in violent crime places: A randomized controlled experiment , 1999 .

[55]  David A. Klinger,et al.  MEASUREMENT ERROR IN CALLS‐FOR‐SERVICE AS AN INDICATOR OF CRIME* , 1997 .

[56]  Richard A. Berk,et al.  When random assignment fails: Some lessons from the Minneapolis Spouse Abuse Experiment , 1988 .

[57]  J. Eck,et al.  What Can Police Do to Reduce Crime, Disorder, and Fear? , 2004 .

[58]  John E. Eck,et al.  Have Changes in Policing Reduced Violent Crime? An Assessment of the Evidence , 2005 .

[59]  Anthony A. Braga,et al.  Policing Problem Places: Crime Hot Spots and Effective Prevention , 2010 .

[60]  L. Sherman,et al.  Problem-Oriented Policing , 2009 .

[61]  Susan M. Hartnett,et al.  Community Policing, Chicago Style , 1997 .

[62]  Lawrence E. Cohen,et al.  Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach , 1979 .

[63]  Brandon R. Kooi Problem‐oriented Policing and Crime Prevention , 2009 .

[64]  Peter Reuter,et al.  Preventing Crime: What Works, What Doesn't, What's Promising. Research in Brief. National Institute of Justice. , 1998 .

[65]  Lawrence W. Sherman,et al.  Deterrent effects of police raids on crack houses: A randomized, controlled experiment , 1995 .

[66]  John E. Eck,et al.  DOES CRIME JUST MOVE AROUND THE CORNER? A CONTROLLED STUDY OF SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT AND DIFFUSION OF CRIME CONTROL BENEFITS* , 2006 .

[67]  D. Weisburd,et al.  Policing drug hot spots: The Jersey City drug market analysis experiment , 1995 .

[68]  Steven N. Durlauf,et al.  Imprisonment and crime , 2011 .

[69]  Ronald V. Clarke,et al.  Auto Theft and Its Prevention , 1992, Crime and Justice.

[70]  Lawrence W. Sherman,et al.  Effects of gun seizures on gun violence: “Hot spots” patrol in Kansas city , 1995 .

[71]  J. Greene,et al.  Zero Tolerance: A Case Study of Police Policies and Practices in New York City , 1999 .

[72]  P. Lachenbruch Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences (2nd ed.) , 1989 .

[73]  John Eck,et al.  Crime Places in Crime Theory , 2015 .

[74]  Rafael Di Tella,et al.  Do Police Reduce Crime? Estimates using the Allocation of Police Forces after a Terrorist Attack , 2004 .

[75]  Patrick R. Gartin,et al.  Hot Spots of Predatory Crime: Routine Activities and the Criminology of Place , 1989 .

[76]  Nick Tilley,et al.  Policing Problem Places: Crime Hot Spots and Effective Prevention , 2012 .

[77]  J. Byrne THE SOCIAL ECOLOGY OF COMMUNITY CORRECTIONS—UNDERSTANDING THE LINK BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL AND COMMUNITY CHANGE , 2008 .

[78]  Steven N. Durlauf,et al.  Imprisonment and crime Can both be reduced ? , 2010 .

[79]  Henk Elffers,et al.  Research design influence on study outcomes in crime and justice: a partial replication with public area surveillance , 2011 .

[80]  Elizabeth R. Groff,et al.  The Philadelphia Foot Patrol Experiment: A Randomized Controlled Trial of Police Patrol Effectiveness in Violent Crime Hotspots , 2011 .

[81]  R. Clarke,et al.  UNDERSTANDING CRIME DISPLACEMENT: AN APPLICATION OF RATIONAL CHOICE THEORY , 1987 .

[82]  Shane D. Johnson,et al.  Spatial displacement and diffusion of benefits among geographically focused policing initiatives , 2009 .

[83]  J. Andreoni,et al.  Do Police Reduce Crime ? Estimates Using the Allocation of Police Forces After a Terrorist Attack , 2003 .

[84]  Howard Giles,et al.  Fairness and Effectiveness in Policing: The Evidence , 2005 .

[85]  R. Rosenthal Parametric measures of effect size. , 1994 .

[86]  Stephen D. Mastrofski,et al.  REFORMING TO PRESERVE: COMPSTAT AND STRATEGIC PROBLEM SOLVING IN AMERICAN POLICING* , 2003 .

[87]  David P. Farrington,et al.  Monetary Costs and Benefits of Crime Prevention Programs , 2000, Crime and Justice.

[88]  Hannah R. Rothstein,et al.  Publication bias as a threat to the validity of meta-analytic results , 2008 .

[89]  David B. Wilson Meta-Analytic Methods for Criminology , 2001 .

[90]  Lorraine Green Mazerolle,et al.  Civil Remedies and Drug Control , 2000 .

[91]  Anthony A. Braga,et al.  POLICING CRIME AND DISORDER HOT SPOTS: A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL* , 2008 .

[92]  John E. Eck,et al.  The Effects of Problem-Oriented Policing on Crime and Disorder: A Systematic Review , 2008 .

[93]  Wilpen L. Gorr,et al.  ESTIMATING INTERVENTION EFFECTS IN VARYING RISK SETTINGS: DO POLICE RAIDS REDUCE ILLEGAL DRUG DEALING AT NUISANCE BARS? , 2003 .