Modelling gross margins and potential N exports from cropland in south-eastern Australia

Abstract This study simulated the economic and environmental performance of three types of wheat sown into soils with three initial N contents and using ten different fertiliser management strategies. The Agricultural Productions Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to model crop yields for which gross margins were estimated and a Bayesian Network used to estimate environmental risk. Based on economic and environmental considerations, it would appear that for low N soils more than 10 kg N/ha is needed at sowing. For soils with medium to high N, short and medium season wheat varieties need only 10 kg N/ha, while long season varieties require >10 kg N/ha, at sowing. Additional N fertiliser can be applied after sowing to maximise gross margins, taking into account potential crop yield and seasonal conditions. Interestingly, the study suggests that where farmers increase their gross margins they are improving their environmental performance. This is counter intuitive as it implies N fertiliser applications can lessen N exports. This results from the enhanced water uptake by the crop outweighing the adverse effects of increased N availability. It would appear that flexible cropping systems that maximise crop potential with minimum sowing N, maximise both economic and environmental performance.

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