Decision science as a by-product of decision-aiding: A practitioner's perspective

Abstract Decision aiding practice has stimulated much research on neglected scientific issues. The author spent 40 years alternating between consulting and diverse faculty appointments in management, statistics, economics, psychology, information technology and public policy. His decision science research, with applied decision theory at its conceptual core, is published, often with academic co-authors, in the literatures on decision theory, cognitive psychology, philosophy, and organization design. A number of the author's ideas and insights, grounded in “anecdotal evidence” stemming from over 100 cases, are discussed here. These ideas cover, for example, hybrid judgment, decomposing estimation error ideal judgment, organization fit and evaluating decision aids. Avenues for future research are outlined. Settled science will require more definitive research.

[1]  Julian N. Marewski,et al.  Teaching Evidence-Based Management With A Focus on Producing Local Evidence , 2014 .

[2]  David Lindley,et al.  Improving judgment by reconciling incoherence , 1982 .

[3]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Environmental Regulation: Developments in How to Set Requirements and Verify Compliance , 2011 .

[4]  Thornton Page,et al.  The Scientist Speculates: An Anthology of Partly-baked Ideas , 1964 .

[5]  Rex V. Brown.  Communicating Information to Risk Managers: The Interactive Phase , 1987 .

[6]  Ulvila Jw,et al.  Decision analysis comes of age. , 1982 .

[7]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Making Decision Research Useful - Not Just Rewarding , 2006, Judgment and Decision Making.

[8]  D. E. Bell,et al.  Decision making: Descriptive, normative, and prescriptive interactions. , 1990 .

[9]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Teaching Decision Making To Adolescents , 1991 .

[10]  Rex Brown,et al.  Diffuse Risks from Adversarial Sources: An Emerging Field of Risk Analysis , 1990 .

[11]  Jacob W. Ulvila,et al.  Decision Analysis as an Element in an Operational Decision Aiding System. , 1974 .

[12]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Toward a prescriptive science and technology of decision aiding , 1989 .

[13]  D. Winterfeldt,et al.  An experimental investigation of plural analysis: Estimating the market share of compact disc players in 1990 , 1988 .

[14]  David Lindley,et al.  Plural analysis: Multiple approaches to quantitative research , 1986 .

[15]  R. Howard,et al.  The decision to seed hurricanes. , 1972, Science.

[16]  Martin A. Tolcott,et al.  Impact and Potential of Decision Research on Decision Aiding , 1987 .

[17]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Rational Choice and Judgment: Decision Analysis for the Decider , 2005 .

[18]  Rex Brown,et al.  The Operation Was a Success but The Patient Died: Aider Priorities Influence Decision Aid Usefulness , 2005, Interfaces.

[19]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  HERESY IN DECISION ANALYSIS: MODELING SUBSEQUENT ACTS WITHOUT ROLLBACK * , 1978 .

[20]  D. Solomon,et al.  Applied Statistical Decision Theory. , 1961 .

[21]  Rex V. Brown.  Communicating Decision Information to the Lay Risk Manager: A Consultant’s Perspective , 2011 .

[22]  S. R. Watson,et al.  Pre-testing innovation: Methodology for testing the design of management systems , 1977 .

[23]  Jacob W. Ulvila,et al.  Step-Through Simulation: A Method for Implementing Decision Analysis. , 1976 .

[24]  S. R. Watson,et al.  The Valuation of Decision Analysis , 1978 .

[25]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Numerical and verbal decision analysis: comparison on practical cases , 2000 .

[26]  Fischhoff,et al.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes the Real World: What Good Is It? Come with the Standardization and Experimentation 232 That We Prefer. Some Are so Comfortable with Studying , 2022 .

[27]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  The State of the Art of Decision Analysis: A Personal Perspective , 1992 .

[28]  Louis Anthony Cox,et al.  New Risks: Issues and Management , 1990, Advances in Risk Analysis.

[29]  F. Chervenak,et al.  Authors' reply re: BJOG Debate ‘Home birth is unsafe’ , 2016, BJOG : an international journal of obstetrics and gynaecology.

[30]  Eric R. Ziecel.  Aspects of Uncertainty , 1995 .

[31]  Rex V. Brown.  Assessment Uncertainty Technology for Making and Defending Risky Decisions , 1990 .

[32]  Ronald A. Howard,et al.  Influence Diagrams , 2005, Decis. Anal..

[33]  Anna Vari,et al.  Towards a research agenda for prescriptive decision science: The normative tempered by the descriptive , 1992 .

[34]  Morgan Mg,et al.  Bad science and good policy analysis. , 1978 .

[35]  Rex V Brown.  Logic and Motivation in Risk Research: A Nuclear Waste Test Case , 2005, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[36]  Stephen R. Watson,et al.  Issues in the Value of Decision Analysis. , 1975 .

[37]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Research and the credibility of estimates , 1969 .

[38]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Managing Incremental Commitment: An Analytic Challenge , 2012 .

[39]  Rex V. Brown,et al.  Decision theory as an aid to private choice , 2012, Judgment and Decision Making.

[40]  A. Tversky,et al.  On the Reconciliation of Probability Assessments , 1979 .

[41]  D. Lindley,et al.  Reconciling Incoherent Judgments (RIJ) - Toward Principles of Personal Rationality. , 1978 .

[42]  Rex V. Brown.  Evaluation of Total Survey Error , 1967 .

[43]  Dennis V. Lindley,et al.  The Reconciliation of Decision Analyses , 1986, Oper. Res..