An example of the application of statistical techniques to predict lake level elevations

A knowledge of future lake levels is helpful in the stormwater management of a lake district with respect to flood control measures, land use measures around the lake, etc. The planning of strategies to achieve management objectives often receives wide attention; however, little or no mention is usually made of prediction of future events, e.g., lake water levels, upon which the strategies are based. These future events are of major importance as they determine the type of objectives and hence the strategies that management will have to develop and follow in the future.In the present study, the available data on monthly lake water levels are examined utilizing two statistical methods, namely, the Box-Jenkins time series analysis and harmonic analysis. The statistical models are then used to predict future lake levels; the predictions are compared with actual observations. It has been found that the predictions made by the Box-Jenkins model are closer to the recorded observations. The results from the two ...