Valuation accuracy – the myth, expectation and reality!

Purpose - – This study sought to highlight the conceptual and empirical grounds precluding accuracy in property valuation thereby exposing the limitations of valuation as proxy for actual transaction price and as basis for performance measurement for property investment. As a way of gauging the current level of awareness on the subject of valuation accuracy among Nigerian valuers (estate surveyors/appraisers) and to ascertain their response to the worldwide phenomenon, the study also included an empirical investigation of the perception of principal stakeholders in Lagos, Nigeria. Design/methodology/approach - – For primary data, the study employed questionnaire survey based on cluster sampling technique; while secondary data were sourced from existing literature and results of previous empirical studies. Findings - – “True market value” is unattainable; while valuation rarely identifies its target – the transaction price as surrogate of the “true market value”. In Nigeria, considerable gap exists between expectations and realities in valuation accuracy. Practical implications - – While efforts devoted to improving the accuracy of property valuation are laudable, the study revealed the extent to which such improvement is feasible. Originality/value - – The study suggested measures that would help Nigerian valuers hone their skills for improved level of accuracy; while funds managers and other valuation end-users are cautioned against blind use of valuations as performance yardstick for property investments.

[1]  C. A. Ayedun,et al.  Clients' Perception of the Reliability of Property Investment Valuation in Nigeria , 2011 .

[2]  M. Omirin,et al.  Valuers’ and Valuation Firms’ Characteristics as Causes of Inaccuracy in Valuation in Nigeria , 2011 .

[3]  C. A. Ajayi,et al.  Variance in residential property valuation in Lagos, Nigeria , 2011 .

[4]  D. Geltner,et al.  Random Disaggregate Appraisal Error in Commercial Property: Evidence from the Russell-NCREIF Database , 2009 .

[5]  Barry Gilbertson,et al.  A vision for valuation , 2005 .

[6]  P. Mcallister,et al.  An assessment of the impact of valuation error on property investment performance measurement , 2001 .

[7]  N. Crosby Valuation accuracy, variation and bias in the context of standards and expectations , 2000 .

[8]  Michael Mallinson,et al.  Uncertainty in property valuation – The nature and relevance of uncertainty and how it might be measured and reported , 2000 .

[9]  Marvin L. Wolverton,et al.  The objective in valuation: a study of the influence of client feedback , 2000 .

[10]  T. Havard,et al.  Do valuers have a greater tendency to adjust a previous valuation upwards or downwards , 1999 .

[11]  Edward J. Schuck,et al.  The influence of clients on valuations , 1999 .

[12]  Peijie Wang,et al.  Commercial property market prices and valuations: Analysing the correspondence , 1995 .

[13]  P. Mcallister Valuation accuracy: A contribution to the debate , 1995 .

[14]  G. Brown Property Investment and the Capital Markets , 1991 .

[15]  D. J. Lord,et al.  The property market, property valuations and property performance measurement , 1985 .

[16]  Iroham Chukwuemeka Osmond,et al.  A Search for an Acceptable Margin of Valuation Error: A Case Study of Valuers and Their Clients in Nigeria , 2010 .

[17]  V. Ghyoot The accuracy of the Johannesburg provisional valuation roll, 2001 , 2008 .

[18]  P. Gallimore The Components of Appraisal Accuracy , 2002 .

[19]  P. Wyatt,et al.  Variance in property valuations for commercial lending , 2002 .

[20]  A. Lavers,et al.  Commercial property loan valuations in the UK: implications of current trends in valuation practice and legal liability , 1998 .

[21]  G. Newell,et al.  Client perception of property investment valuation reports in the UK , 1997 .