Stochastic vehicle mobility forecasts using the NATO Reference Mobility Model. Report 1, Basic concepts and procedures

Abstract : This report describes concepts and procedures that convert the NATO Reference Mobility Model (NRMM) from a deterministic code to a stochastic one. The motivation for the conversion is the opportunity being presented by advances in computer technology that can allow NRMM to be used in the fast-paced tactical environment of a battlefield. Appropriate components of a stochastic mobility forecast are identified as a speed map, a fingerprint, a mission-rating speed and a range for the mission-rating speed. The speed map and the mission-rating speed are the current NRMM products; the fingerprint and range are new components that describe the performance of NRMM when its data contain errors. Quantification of error performance becomes very important to mobility planning in a tactical setting. The procedures are illustrated by means of a comprehensive and robust example involving four vehicles, four terrain maps and two scenarios. The procedures are somewhat preliminary in the sense that alternative implementations are possible. Minimization of computational bottlenecks motivates the selections; other selections may be more appropriate in the future. Mathematical models; Sensitivity; Mobility; Vehicles, military.