Crime statistics: A mathematical perspective

This paper compares the crime statistics generated by the FBI's Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) to those generated by the National Crime Survey (NCS), collected by the Census Bureau for the Law Enforcement Assistance Administration. The crime reporting process is described for both the UCR and NCS to determine the nature of their respective biases. Events within the processes are analyzed to develop a new estimate of crime incidence based on both the UCR and NCS. Numerical examples are then developed to point out the deficiencies in the NCS, and to make suggestions for the improvement of its accuracy.