Nothing Recedes Like Success - Risk Analysis and the Organizational Amplification of Risks

Professor Freudenburg believes that there is room for improvement in Risk analysis, particularly in drawing on systematic studies of human behavior in the calculation of real, empirical probabilities of failure. The need is argued to be especially acute where technological Risks are associated with low expected probabilities of failure and are managed by human organizations for extended periods of time. This permits complacency to set in.