Seasonal Soil Moisture Drought Prediction over Europe Using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

AbstractDroughts diminish crop yields and can lead to severe socioeconomic damages and humanitarian crises (e.g., famine). Hydrologic predictions of soil moisture droughts several months in advance are needed to mitigate the impact of these extreme events. In this study, the performance of a seasonal hydrologic prediction system for soil moisture drought forecasting over Europe is investigated. The prediction system is based on meteorological forecasts of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) that are used to drive the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM). The skill of the NMME-based forecasts is compared against those based on the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) approach for the hindcast period of 1983–2009. The NMME-based forecasts exhibit an equitable threat score that is, on average, 69% higher than the ESP-based ones at 6-month lead time. Among the NMME-based forecasts, the full ensemble outperforms the single best-performing model CFSv2, as well as all subensembles. Subensembles, however, ...

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