Modeling and forecasting the information sciences

Abstract A model of the development of the information sciences is described and is used to account for past events and predict future trends, particularly fifth- and sixth-generation priorities. The information sciences came into prominence as electronic device technology made it possible to satisfy the social need to cope with an increasingly complex world. Underlying all developments in computing is a tiered succession of learning curves that make up the infrastructure of the computing industry. The paper provides a framework for the information sciences based on this logical progression of developments. It links this empirically to key events in the development of computing. It links it theoretically to a model of economic, social, scientific, and individual development as related learning processes with a simple phenomenological model. The fifth-generation development program, with its emphasis on human-computer interaction and artificial intelligence, and the sixth-generation research program, with its emphasis on knowledge science, are natural developments in the foci of attention indicated by the model.

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